The expected Week 6 matchup of unbeatens failed to materialize. Nonetheless the top two teams collide in the XFL’s version of Monday Night Football. The DC Defenders kept up their end of the deal beating St. Louis for the second time in three weeks, 28-20, improving to 5-0 SU and ATS. They face a pissed off group of Houston Roughnecks, who were upset by Seattle last week losing 21-14 as a 3-point favorite. Boasting the highest scoring offense and the No. 1 ranked defense, the Roughnecks may be the best team in the XFL, they just don’t have the best record. For the first time they’ll play as a dog catching 2-points on the opening line.
While one team suffered its first loss another experienced its first win. In a battle of winless clubs Orlando and Vegas put on a show combining for 756 yards of offense in the highest scoring game this season. The Guardians entered averaging 12.3 points and tallied 13 in the fourth quarter alone. However, they surrendered at least 30 points for the fourth time in the 35-32 setback. Orlando opens the betting week hosting red-hot Seattle on Saturday afternoon catching 9.5 points, matching the largest spread of the season. Orlando was a 9.5-point dog in its Week 3 tilt with Arlington earning its only payout in a 10-9 loss.
Seattle Sea Dragons (3-2) at Orlando Guardians (0-5), 1 p.m. ET (ABC)
Opening Line: Seattle -9.5, O/U 42.5
Behind passing leader Ben DiNucci the Sea Dragons have the No. 1 total offense averaging 355.6 yards. And after losing their first two games by a combined six points, they’re rolling knocking off previously unbeaten Houston 21-14 last week for their third straight win and payout. Seattle has been good defensively as well holding Houston scoreless through three quarters. One thing that bothers me about Seattle, though, is the turnovers. DiNucci tossed three interceptions last week giving him a league high seven, and the Sea Dragons turned it over four times, their fourth game with multiple giveaways. Still, we should see points after Orlando got a boost from the return of Quinten Dormady, and drive-killing turnovers will allow Orlando to stay within the spread.
Prediction: Orlando +9.5 / OVER 42.5
St. Louis Battlehawks (3-2) at Vegas Vipers (1-4), 7 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: St. Louis -3, O/U 45.5
For the second time in three weeks the Battlehawks played the top team in the league close only to lose. Their only two setbacks were to the unbeaten Defenders. This is another game that screams offense with A.J. McCarron going against the XFL’s worst total defense and second worst pass defense. The Vipers allowed 32 points to an Orlando club that was averaging just over 12 points. Vegas also showed some offense behind Luis Perez, who was 20 of 28 for 269 yards and three TDs. St. Louis is excited to not be playing DC and that excitement will translate on the field in a cover win.
Prediction: St. Louis -3 / OVER 45.5
Sunday, March 26
San Antonio Brahmas (1-4) at Arlington Renegades (3-2), 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
Opening Line: Arlington -2.5, O/U 32
The Texas rivals tee it up again one week after Arlington won a defensive battle, 12-10, in San Antonio. The Brahmas had chances with their final two possessions of the fourth quarter resulting in interceptions that sealed their fourth loss. Both teams have struggled on offense with Arlington last in yards and points and San Antonio next to last. I guess that’s why the total of 32 is the lowest we’ve seen in an XFL game this season. Quarterback play has been atrocious on both sides with Jack Coan getting the hook last week after going 7 of 15 for 42 yards and two picks. The teams should be better on that side of the ball but I don’t see things changing much in a week.
Prediction: Arlington -2.5 / UNDER 32
Monday, March 27
Houston Roughnecks (4-1) at DC Defenders (5-0), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Opening Line: DC -2, O/U 43
The game of the week gets single billing on Monday for the league to show off its top squads. The matchup lost some excitement when Houston was upset by Seattle last week. Still, I think Wade Phillips’ crew is the best team and they should be extra motivated for this one. Defensively Houston leads the XFL in fewest yards and points allowed while also totaling the most sacks and interceptions. Those numbers may take a hit since DC doesn’t need to throw the ball that often. Jordan Ta’amu attempted just 18 passes last week allowing Abram Smith to take over. Smith rushed for 218 yards and three scores on 23 carries and the Defenders average more than 170 yards on the ground. But I do think Houston’s defense will be up to the task.
Prediction: Houston +2 / UNDER 43
