Two teams enter Week 5 of the XFL season without a win and one of them will remain that way when play concludes. It’s not the marquee matchup on the slate, but the Orlando Guardians at Vegas Vipers game on Saturday could be the most interesting with both having a chance to finally break into the win column. It was a rough last week for both with Orlando getting blown out for the third time in four games, 44-16, by Houston and Vegas falling 32-18 to DC. The two winners stayed unbeaten off the gap between the league’s best and worst teams.
The unbeatens could be looking ahead to their Week 6 matchup putting them in a letdown spot in road games against stronger opponents. The Roughnecks open the betting week at Seattle with the Sea Dragons riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak. Houston has dominated, though, winning its games by an average of more than 16 points with none closer than nine points. Houston opened as a 3-point favorite. The Defenders are also 4-0 SU and ATS and take on St. Louis in a rematch from Week 3 when the teams combined for 632 yards in the highest scoring game of the season.
Thursday, March 16
Houston Roughnecks (4-0) at Seattle Sea Dragons (2-2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening Line: Houston -3, O/U 42
Seattle has shown they can move the football behind XFL passing leader Ben DiNucci. They amassed 343 total yards last week a game after compiling 519 yards. They scored enough points to win those games, but the point total should be higher with the amount of yards they gained. One thing holding them back is turnover. Seattle had one giveaway last week, which was an improvement, but they’ve coughed it up nine times. Houston is efficient on both sides of the football with Brandon Silvers throwing a league high 10 TD passes and boasting the highest QB rating. Houston has been better defensively and that makes all the difference with the visitors maintaining their perfect record.
Prediction: Houston -3 / OVER 42
Saturday, March 18
DC Defenders (4-0) at St. Louis Battlehawks (3-1), 7 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: DC -2, O/U 43
Backed by a crowd of over 38k for their home opener the Battlehawks improved to 3-1 SU and ATS with a 24-11 win over Arlington. Their only loss was a few weeks ago to DC, 34-28, when they turned the ball over four times. A.J. McCarron threw two picks, including one that was returned for a TD. McCarron rebounded last week going 20 of 27 for 214 yards with a pair of TDs and the defense picked off three Kyle Sloter passes. They also limited the Renegades to 240 total yards. McCarron gives St. Louis a steady presence behind center and another big crowd will ignite the Battlehawks. And with a win St. Louis will tie for the North Division lead.
Prediction: St. Louis +2 / OVER 43
Orlando Guardians (0-4) at Vegas Vipers (0-4), 10 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: Vegas -7.5, O/U 41.5
If you had a question as to which team is the worst in the league, look no further than the opening line. Rarely will you find a team favored by 7.5 points in a game between winless clubs. A deeper dive tells you why that is. Orlando averages just 12.3 points and has been outscored by 68 points for the season. They came close in Week 3 losing to Arlington 10-9, meaning they were outscored by an average of over 22 points in the other three games. Paxton Lynch is the most sacked QB in the XFL and the offense hasn’t got untracked. The D is also a sieve giving Luis Perez and the Vipers the advantage. Vegas held a second half lead against Arlington in the opener and surrendered a late score to Seattle, but 7.5-points is a lot so I’m backing the visitors.
Prediction: Orlando +7 / OVER 41.5
Sunday, March 19
Arlington Renegades (2-2) at San Antonio Brahmas (1-3), 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Opening Line: San Antonio -3, O/U 34.5
Outside of a 30-12 thrashing of Orlando in Week 2, the San Antonio offense has struggled. And Arlington scored a total of 35 points the last three weeks. So I guess it’s not a big surprise that the total emerged at a low 34.5, which is actually the lowest in any game this season. And both teams have cashed the UNDER three times. That doesn’t mean we won’t see offense with two capable QBs in Kyle Sloter and Jack Coan, assuming Sloter remains QB1 after tossing three interceptions last week. Cutting down on turnovers will allow both clubs to showcase a more potent offense that should take this game OVER the total. As far as a winner you can flip a coin. I did and it landed on the points, so I’m backing Arlington.
Prediction: Arlington +3 / OVER 34.5
