Through three weeks of the XFL season we’re starting to see some separation. The Houston Roughnecks and DC Defenders remained unbeaten with impressive Week 3 wins while Vegas and Orlando stayed winless. And coincidentally the teams without a loss face the teams looking for their first victory in Week 4. Houston is the best team leading the XFL in scoring while giving up the fewest points. The Roughnecks open the betting week against Orlando in a rematch from Week 1 when Houston forced four turnovers and recorded seven sacks winning 33-12. Wade Phillips’ crew has dominated winning its games by an average of 13 points while going 3-0 ATS.
With former NFLers Ben DiNucci and Josh Gordon working in the run and shoot perfected by June Jones, we expected Seattle to score points. Turnovers affected them in the first two games with three giveaways in each of them, but DiNucci had the best day for an XFL quarterback this season going 29 of 37 for 377 yards and four touchdowns, two of them to Gordon who had 118 yards on six catches. Seattle exploded for 519 total yards in their 30-26 victory. Orlando might be the worst team but the Guardians showed poise in a 10-9 loss to Arlington. For the second straight week they are the biggest dog on the board catching 8.5 points in their matchup with Houston.
Houston Roughnecks (3-0) at Orland Guardians (0-3), 7 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: Houston -8.5, O/U 38
The Guardians have been on the plus side of the two biggest point spreads in the XFL this season. After losing their first two games by an average of nearly 20 points, Orlando was catching 9.5-points in last week’s game with Arlington. The Guardians lost but they put up a fight holding a fourth quarter lead before succumbing 10-9. The offensive struggles continued with the club last in the league in scoring. And things are unlikely to get better against Houston’s aggressive defense that’s allowed the fewest points and has the most sacks and interceptions. And if Week 1 is any indication the gap between the clubs is wide. Houston rolled in the opener, 33-12, getting three picks and seven sacks. Meanwhile Brandon Silvers has been efficient directing the XFL’s highest scoring offense.
Prediction: Houston -8.5 / OVER 38
San Antonio Brahmas (1-2) at Seattle Sea Dragons (1-2), 10 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: Seattle -4, O/U 42
Seattle’s version of the run and shoot came alive against Vegas with Ben DiNucci having the best day of any XFL quarterback so far. The former Cowboy was 29 of 37 for 377 yards and four touchdowns as the Sea Dragons amassed 519 total yards in their 30-26 victory. We expected some offense out of them with Josh Gordon catching balls and June Jones designing plays. And as long as the turnovers are minimized – Seattle has eight giveaways – the points should come. And I expect Jack Coan to have a better game after throwing for only 64 yards in a loss to Arlington.
Prediction: Seattle -4 / OVER 42
Arlington Renegades (2-1) at St. Louis Battlehawks (2-1), 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Opening Line: St. Louis -4, O/U 37
The magic ran out on St. Louis last week despite having their best offensive showing of the season. A.J. McCarron couldn’t rally the troops, though he feverishly tried. McCarron threw for 262 yards and four touchdowns, but he was intercepted twice, including a pick six. Arlington’s offense could use a little McCarron after scoring just 10 points last week. The Renegades were able to get the win on a Kyle Sloter scoring pass late in the game. Arlington managed only 178 yards but they didn’t commit a turnover and were flagged for just two penalties. The Renegades don’t beat themselves allowing them to cover the 4-point line.
Prediction: Arlington +4 / UNDER
Vegas Vipers (0-3) at DC Defenders (3-0), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Opening Line: DC -6.5, O/U 42
Just like the first game of the week, we close with a winner and a loser. DC improved to 3-0 SU and ATS with a big 34-28 win over St. Louis. Jordan Ta’amu and D’Eriq King each threw a TD pass and the defense intercepted two passes, one that was returned for a score by Michael Joseph, and recorded four sacks. Vegas is still trying to figure things out and will have a tough time against a club that shut them down18-9 in Week 2. Vegas was close in its other games losing 22-20 to Arlington in the opener and 30-26 to San Diego last week and the Vipers are getting close.
Prediction: Vegas +6.5 /UNDER 42
