The Ohio State Buckeyes are a big favorite over the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten opener for both schools Saturday inside the Horseshoe. Both squads are coming off major victories last week ahead of this showdown.
The No. 3 Buckeyes trounced Toledo 77-21 and have outscored opponents by an average of more than 33 points in their three wins. The Badgers bounced back from an upset home loss to Washington State by hammering New Mexico State 66-7. OSU has won the last eight meetings and is laying 18-points on the college football betting line, the highest spread in the last two decades.
The Week 4 college football game between the Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes will take place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 24, 2022 and will be televised on ABC.
Wisconsin vs Ohio State Odds
Wisconsin Badgers +18
Ohio State Buckeyes -18
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
I’m not sure you can take anything away from last week’s games when both clubs easily handled overmatched opponents. In their one game against a distinguished foe the Buckeyes beat Notre Dame, 21-10. The Badgers had a Week 2 contest against a Power Five squad losing at home to Washington State, 17-14, as a 17.5-point favorite. Take into account OSU’s recent success winning eight straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings and the Buckeyes are positioned as an 18-point favorite. The total hit the board at 55.5 and was quickly wagered up to 57. The teams cashed the UNDER in each of the last three meetings.
Wisconsin Badgers
I’m not sure what happened to the Badgers in their Week 2 loss, but 11 penalties for 106 yards and a pair of missed field goals didn’t help. Wazzou isn’t the level of Ohio State and playing undisciplined football against the third-ranked team in the country will result in disaster. When the Badgers eliminate those gaffes they can be dangerous. They have a pair of blowout cover wins as a favorite of 30 or more points beating Illinois State 38-0 in the opener and NMSU 66-7 last week. Wisconsin is flying under the radar after getting knocked out of the national rankings following their Week 2 setback.
Coming close on several occasions during their current eight-game losing streak to the Buckeyes should be encouraging. Bucky dropped six of those games by 13 points or less with five of those separated by a converted touchdown or less. One thing Wisconsin hangs its hat on is running the football and winning the trenches. Braelon Allen needs to have a big game for any hope of an upset or even covering the spread. He averages over 110 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns and keeping the ball away from OSU’s offense is a priority.
Ohio State Buckeyes
We saw the Buckeyes struggle against Notre Dame in the opener with this contest an opportunity to prove they can move the football against quality competition. OSU dominated in wins over Arkansas State and Toledo, but the start of Big Ten play presents different obstacles. At least the offense appears to be humming getting better every week, and C.J. Stroud will have his receiving corps available, increasing the odds of having another banner day. Stroud was 22 of 27 for 367 yards and five TDs against Toledo before exiting in the second half. The Buckeyes amassed 723 yards of offense. Stroud is completing nearly 73 percent of his passes with nine scores and zero interceptions.
This matchup is always a tough test for both squads with Ohio State passing the previous eight times. The Buckeyes are unbeaten in that span while going 6-2 ATS. Bucky always poses a formidable challenge with a usually stout defense, but OSU scored at least 30 points in six of the last eight games. And OSU is even tougher to beat at home. They won and covered the last six meetings at the Horseshoe while averaging over 38 points. And don’t overlook the defense, which held Notre Dame to just 273 total yards and has allowed an average of 14.3 points.
Wisconsin vs Ohio State Predictions
I’m reluctant to back Wisconsin, but getting 18 points makes it easier. Despite their lack of success the Badgers have been close in a number of games and they don’t take that losing skid too kindly. What scares me is OSU’s offense getting healthy and finding a groove. This is a different opponent and I trust Wisconsin will not hurt itself with silly penalties, turnovers and special teams gaffes. If they play a clean game I can see the Badgers staying within the line.
Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers +18 / UNDER 57
