It’s getting crunch time in the 2022 USFL season with only three games remaining before the league uproots from its season-long home in Birmingham for Canton, Ohio and two weeks of playoffs. Two teams made reservations last week with division leaders New Jersey Generals and Birmingham Stallions securing a berth. There is no home field advantage so that’s not on the table for the final weeks, but playing your best football and avoiding injuries will certainly aid in reaching the title game.
Birmingham remains the favorite on the USFL futures board after improving to 7-0 with another comeback win, this time over Pittsburgh when the depleted roster saw QB Alex McGough take snaps at receiver. And we know how devastating injuries can be with USFL players not immune. The Stallions will likely be without leading receiver Victor Bolden, who has 33 receptions and 330 yards, for the remainder of the season.
The separation between teams is evident as the four betting favorites all won their Week 7 games. Birmingham posted its third straight double-digit win knocking off Pittsburgh 26-16, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite falling to 5-1 ATS. The Stallions hit the board as a 3-point favorite over New Orleans in a battle between top teams in the South Division. Winners in two straight the Breakers are just two games back and can secure a playoff spot. Birmingham escaped with a 22-13 victory when the clubs met in Week 3.
Scoring around the league has spiked with the past three weeks the highest in the USFL. Teams set a record in Week 6 with every game going OVER the total. The clubs came close to matching that point total in Week 7 with three games playing above the total. The OVER is 11-1 in the last three weeks with oddsmakers making adjustments ahead of Week 8. For the first time this season every game has a total above 42.
Let’s take a look at the Week 8 matchups.
Pittsburgh Maulers (1-6) vs. New Jersey Generals (6-1)
Friday, June 3, 8 p.m. ET (USA)
Opening Line: New Jersey -9, O/U 42
On paper this looks like a blowout. The Generals boast the USFL’s top offense and defense in terms of yards and they’re riding a six-game winning streak while the Maulers have only one win that came on the game’s last play. But as we all know the games aren’t played on paper. Pittsburgh has been gritty and they held their largest lead of the season in last week’s loss to Birmingham. But they just don’t have enough offense and even benched Vad Lee last week. The Maulers are last in the league averaging 13.1 points, but they covered the 10-point spread in the first meeting and are 3-1 ATS in their last four. Still, I like the Generals in this matchup.
Prediction: New Jersey -9 / UNDER 42
New Orleans Breakers (5-3) vs. Birmingham Stallions (7-0)
Saturday, June 4, 3 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Birmingham -3, O/U 43.5
New Orleans can make things interesting in the South if they can beat Birmingham. The Breakers are only two games back and won their second straight beating Michigan in OT last week. Birmingham kept its perfect season alive with a comeback win over Pittsburgh getting another big game from Bo Scarbrough, who rushed for 100 yards. The passing game stunk due to injuries, most notably to Bolden. The Stallions caught a break playing Pittsburgh and they won’t be so lucky if they play the same way against New Orleans. Kyle Sloter leads the USFL in passing and tossed a pair of TDs last week. Birmingham won the first meeting 22-13 forcing three New Orleans turnovers, including a fumble for a safety. They won’t be so lucky this time around.
Prediction: New Orleans +3 / UNDER 43.5
Michigan Panthers (1-6) vs. Philadelphia Stars (4-3)
Sunday, June 5, 12 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Philadelphia -5.5, O/U 47
When it looked like the Panthers were getting close to putting things together the season fell apart even more. Boasting one of the top defenses during the early weeks of the season while struggling to put up points, the roles have reversed. Michigan is averaging 22.6 points in its last five games but they’ve yielded at least 26 points in four straight and more than 30 points in the last two. And they just can’t catch a break being a missed field goal in the closing seconds or opponents making one and winning in overtime, like New Orleans did last week. They are the best 1-6 team in the league, but that doesn’t mean much. The Stars scored 22 unanswered to rally past Houston and they are good at a lot of things. Not great, but good, and that’ll be enough against the snake bit Panthers.
Prediction: Philadelphia -5.5 / UNDER 47
Houston Gamblers (1-6) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (3-4)
Sunday, June 5, 4 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)
Opening Line: Tampa Bay -4.5, O/U 44
Tampa Bay is the only team not currently in a playoff spot that has a realistic chance of reaching the postseason. You would think that would be enough motivation, especially for Jordan Ta’amu. Football isn’t easy especially playing QB, but Ta’amu’s experience was supposed to lead the Bandits to one of the top records. Well, that hasn’t quite worked out and when Ta’amu struggles so does the rest of the team. That was evident last week when Ta’amu tossed three picks thwarting drives in a game Tampa probably should’ve won. He’s tossed a league-high eight interceptions and the Bandits are minus-10 in turnover differential. Ta’amu has a chance to pad his stats against a porous Houston defense and I expect him to do that.
Prediction: Tampa Bay -4.5 / OVER 44
