As we head down the back slope of the 2022 USFL season playoff talk is heating up. Week 7 is the final weekend teams will face each other for the first time. The remaining three games all feature divisional contests that will play a role in the final standings and postseason matchups. The teams have separated themselves through the first six weeks. The Birmingham Stallions are the only unbeaten team improving to 6-0 with a 33-17 win over Michigan last week. Birmingham has a two-game lead over New Orleans in the South Division.
The New Jersey Generals have solidified their spot as a top contender and the second-best team thanks to a five-game winning streak. They finished off a comeback 26-25 win over Houston last week scoring on the game’s final play. New Jersey’s only setback came in the opener when Birmingham scored a late touchdown for the 28-24 decision. Three teams – Michigan, Pittsburgh and Houston – are at the other end of the standings with a 1-5 record.
We’ve also seen betting trends emerge with a larger sample size. Birmingham is the most profitable team in the league with payouts in all six of its games. And the Stallions have the largest spread in USFL history laying 11-points on the opening line at BookMaker.eu for their Week 7 matchup with Pittsburgh. The Maulers were also involved in the previous high catching 10-points against New Jersey in Week 4. They covered the line in a 21-13 loss.
Game totals for Week 7 climbed after OVER bettors scored big at the betting window the last two weeks. With totals below 40 for every game in Weeks 5 and 6, the USFL saw the two highest scoring weeks of the season. Teams averaged nearly 22.5 points in Week 5 with that number rising to 25.8 last week. As a result for the first time since opening week every game has a total above 40.
Let’s take a look at the Week 7 matchups.
New Jersey Generals (5-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (3-3)
Kick off: Saturday, May 28, 12 p.m. ET (USA)
Opening Line: New Jersey -4, O/U 41.5
Boasting the USFL’s top offense and defense in terms of yards, the Generals might be the most complete team. They also have a flare for the dramatics with three of their games decided by four-points or less. Luis Perez snuck in on the game’s final play for a 26-25 win over Houston last week, New Jersey’s fifth straight. We’ve seen Jordan Ta’amu look more like the QB we expected to see sparking Tampa’s offense to 55 points the last two games. Ta’amu threw for 333 yards and four scores but three turnovers plagued the Bandits in their 35-28 loss to Philadelphia. Tampa needs to clean up its act to have a chance; the Bandits have the worst turnover differential in the league at minus-7. I expect they will on Saturday.
Prediction: Tampa Bay +4 / UNDER 41.5
New Orleans Breakers (4-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-5)
Kick off: Saturday, May 28, 9 p.m. ET (FS1)
Opening Line: New Orleans -5, O/U 41
Just when it looked like the Panthers were about to come around they had a game with Birmingham. The numbers weren’t as flashy but Shea Patterson had a strong game in the loss and the offense has steadied after a brutal start. The defense has slipped giving up an average of nearly 29 points during a three-game losing streak and facing a New Orleans unit that features the league’s top passer in Kyle Sloter and a run game that produced 173 yards last week could be too much to overcome.
Prediction: New Orleans -5 / UNDER 41.5
Birmingham Stallions (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-5)
Kick off: Sunday, May 29, 2 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Birmingham -11, O/U 41
Passing on 11 points might not be the best move, but the Maulers haven’t given me much reason for optimism. They got a spark from Vad Lee in Week 5 with his last second scoring pass providing the final points in a 21-20 victory. It was the only time Pittsburgh led in the game. They are the lowest scoring team and it’s not even close and Lee had problems last week tossing a pair of interceptions, including a pick-six. Birmingham held a decent Michigan offense in check and got a big game from Bo Scarbrough to offset a subpar performance from J’Mar Smith and the Stallions posted their biggest win of the season and second straight by at least 13 points. I’ll give the points in this one.
Prediction: Birmingham -11 / UNDER 41
Philadelphia Stars (3-3) vs. Houston Gamblers (1-5)
Kick off: Sunday, May 29, 6 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)
Opening Line: Philadelphia -3.5, O/U 44.5
If it wasn’t for bad luck Houston would have none. That’s not a good thing for team named the Gamblers, though they did pay off their backers last week catching 7-points in their 26-25 loss. They suffered their second straight loss on the last play of the game and three of their defeats have come by exactly 1-point. Every game has been close with all of them decided by seven points or less and the Stars haven’t exactly been a dominant team. They were aided by three Tampa turnovers in last week’s win, but they aren’t scaring anyone with Case Cookus at QB. Take the points in this one.
Prediction: Houston +3.5 / UNDER 44.5
