A lot was determined last week around the USFL leaving the final weekend of regular season play with little suspense. The New Orleans Breakers secured the final playoff spot by beating Tampa Bay and the quest of the Birmingham Stallions for perfection was stopped by Houston. Though they share the best record with New Jersey, Birmingham won its share of close games, including a 10-9 triumph over New Orleans in Week 8. The Stallions were the biggest favorite of the season laying 12.5-points and lost outright to the Gamblers, 17-15, putting them at 0-3 ATS the last three games.
I’ve said for a few weeks that New Jersey is the most balanced team. A look at the stats backs that up as does their play on the field. The Generals won their eighth straight, 25-23, over Michigan and boast the USFL’s top offense and defense in terms of yardage. They’ve scored at least 20 points in all but one game while cashing the OVER in four of their previous five games. There’s an interesting matchup in Week 10 with New Jersey taking on Philadelphia. The two will also meet a week later in Canton in the North Division playoff game. The Generals earned a payout in Week 3 with a 24-16 win over the Stars and they are a 2.5-point favorite on the USFL betting line at BookMaker.eu.
There is one thing left to be decided with Sunday’s tilt between Michigan and Pittsburgh determining which team finishes with the worst record. Both have one win after falling by a combined three points last week. The Panthers fell 25-23 to New Jersey, their sixth loss by seven points or less. The Maulers were beaten 17-16, though they did cover the 8.5-point line while improving to 4-2 ATS in their last six. Michigan posted the USFL’s only shutout in the first meeting between the clubs, 24-0, in Week 3. The Panthers are laying 2.5-points in the rematch.
Let’s take a look at the Week 10 matchups.
Philadelphia Stars (6-3) vs. New Jersey Generals (8-1)
Saturday, June 18, 12 p.m. ET (USA)
Opening Line: New Jersey -2.5, O/U 41
It’ll be interesting to see how the teams deal with this matchup. They’ve already secured the top spots in the North Division and will tangle the following week in the playoffs in Canton. We saw Philly’s offense stumble last week with Case Cookus being replaced midway through. It was an effort to give backup K.J. Costello some playing time though. Will the Stars make a similar move this week? The Generals have gotten adequate QB play from Luis Perez and De’Andre Johnson and also lead the league in rushing. A lot of Darius Victor and Trey Williams will allow them to control the tempo leading to a cover victory.
Prediction: New Jersey -2.5 / UNDER 41
Birmingham Stallions (8-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (4-5)
Saturday, June 18, 4 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening Line: Birmingham -3.5, O/U 41
With the undefeated season out of the way the Stallions will look to refine a few things ahead of the postseason. It was looking like another comeback last week before J’Mar Smith was intercepted on the final possession, denying a chance for another win. Smith had one of his best games throwing for 260 yards, but the pick was costly. And the Stallions shouldn’t have been in that position in the first place. Tampa Bay is the biggest underachiever of the season. The offense never got going despite having Jordan Ta’amu behind center. Ta’amu has a league-high 11 interceptions and the Bandits’ 19 giveaways and minus-13 turnover margin are easily the worst.
Prediction: Birmingham -3.5 / UNDER 41
Michigan Panthers (1-8) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-8)
Sunday, June 19, 12 p.m. ET (USA)
Opening Line: Michigan -2.5, O/U 41.5
There’s plenty on the line in this matchup making it the most intriguing game of the week. The winner avoids having the worst record in the league and pride can be a great motivator. At this point I wonder about Michigan’s mental state. The Panthers have been close so many times and they fell again last week on a late New Jersey score. Injuries and bad luck have plagued both teams, but it was Michigan that posted a decisive 24-0 victory in Week 3 over the Maulers for their lone win. Despite their shuffling at QB the Maulers have been unable to find a rhythm. They average a USFL worst 14 points and their 256.1 yards per game are next to last. I just don’t see them doing enough and Michigan could have problems with QB Josh Love, RB Cameron Scarlett and WR Devin Ross leaving last week’s game with injuries.
Prediction: Michigan -2.5 / UNDER 41.5
New Orleans Breakers (6-3) vs. Houston Gamblers (2-7)
Sunday, June 19, 8:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Opening Line: New Orleans -3, O/U 41.5
Hand it to the Breakers for playing a solid game beating Tampa Bay 17-6 to clinch a playoff spot. It wasn’t the prettiest getting outgained by more than 100 yards, but harassing the Bandits into four turnovers proved decisive. And we’ve seen some offensive struggles the past two weeks that need to be corrected ahead of the playoffs. New Orleans had its lowest scoring game of the season in Week 8 and totaled just 215 yards last week with QB’s Kyle Sloter and Zach Smith combining for less than 100 passing yards. That could change against the Gamblers, who have the league’s worst defense yielding 346.7 yards per game.
Prediction: New Orleans -3 / OVER 41.5
