It’s been a while since the city of Angels has had so much riding on the outcome of the game between the area’s top two college football programs. The USC Trojans are the Pac-12’s lone remaining hope for a possible CFP berth having lost just once. They can secure a spot in the conference championship with a win over their rival UCLA Bruins on Saturday. The Bruins are still in line for a trip to the Pac-12 title game and a conference championship, but the season took a turn with an ugly home loss to Arizona last week as a 20-point favorite.
The Week 12 college football game between the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins will take place at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 19, 2022 and will be televised on ABC.
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins Odds
USC Trojans -1
UCLA Bruins +1
Over/Under 75
Odds Analysis
You never know about rivalry games with emotion trumping everything else. And for the first time in a few years both clubs have put together stellar seasons making this one even closer to call. USC hit the board as a 2.5-point favorite with early action on the Bruins pushing the line to USC -1. The Trojans responded to their only loss of the season taking care of Arizona, Cal and Colorado averaging 47 points and cashing the OVER in those three games. The total spiked a point after surfacing at 74. UCLA was 5-1 SU and ATS in six games before its stunning loss to Arizona that ended the longshot hopes of a CFP invite.
USC Trojans
There’s a lot at stake for the Trojans as they look to end the Pac-12’s CFP drought. They need to take care of business and get some help, but I think it’s safe to say they are good enough offensively to compete with any team in the country. Lincoln Riley’s brand of football has the Men of Troy playing at a high level. They’ve scored more than 40 points in their last four games cashing the OVER each time and they’ve topped the 40-point mark eight times on the year. Heck, they scored 42 points in their lone defeat giving you a good idea where the issues rest.
USC’s blowout win over Colorado last week came with a price. Behind Heisman hopeful Caleb Williams, who tossed three scoring passes and ran for two more, the Trojans earned their third payout in five games covering the 34.5-point line in a 55-17 win over Colorado. But leading rusher and emotional leader Travis Dye was carted off the field with a season-ending injury putting a damper on an otherwise glorious afternoon. The defense, ravaged for most of the season, stepped up with its best game in over month holding the Buffs to 259 yards and recording three sacks. But it was against the Pac’s worst offense.
UCLA Bruins
It’s possible the Bruins were looking ahead to this game which explains their hapless effort as a 20-point favorite against Arizona. It was a rough start to that game with the Bruins falling behind 14-0 only to rally and take a 28-24 lead early in the fourth quarter. A defense that’s given up more than 30 points in five of the last six games couldn’t hold it allowing Arizona to score 10 points in the final six and a half minutes. There is the potential for a lot of points with two prolific offensive teams that have struggled to stop opponents. I guess that’s why the total settled at 75.
Keeping the ball away from Williams and USC’s offense is a key for the Bruins so you can expect to see plenty of Zach Charbonnet The Pac-12’s leading rusher scampered for 181 yards and three scores against Arizona, his sixth straight 100-yard rushing game. He’s amassed 1,145 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns averaging 182 yards on the ground over his last four starts. Chip Kelly said after the devastating loss that the Bruins can’t let Arizona beat them twice, and the experienced group will heed that notice.
USC at UCLA Prediction
You can throw the stats and records out the window for the Crosstown Showdown. I do expect UCLA to be angry after losing to Arizona and the Trojans are the last hope for the Pac-12 in the CFP picture. That puts this game at another level and you can expect both clubs to work their strength, which is offense. However, I think USC is just a bit better and while a number of players and coaches weren’t around last year, they are all aware of that 62-33 loss.
Prediction: USC Trojans -1 and OVER 75
