Former middleweight champion and Long Island native Chris Weidman doesn’t have a great track record fighting in his home state. In consecutive fights – at Madison Square Garden and Keybank Center in Buffalo – “The All-American” has gotten his face smashed in by Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi.
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This Saturday, Weidman will be fighting in his own backyard of Long Island, headlining a solid UFC on FOX 25 card. On top of the pressure of not getting beaten up in front of friends and family for a change, the 33-year old is trying to avoid a fourth straight loss. That’s not gonna be easy when his opponent is surging young stud like Kelvin Gastelum.
The rest of the card is propped up by a few key divisional matchups featuring a solid range of top-15 fighters. Among the notable scraps are a featherweight barnburner between Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins and a bantamweight contender tilt featuring Jimmie Rivera and Thomas Almeida.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and assign Cherry Picks and Underdog Specials.
Cherry Picks Record: 32-23-1
Underdog Specials Record: 7-4
Chris Weidman +151 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -191
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -160, under +130
Matchup & Betting Analysis
We can cut Weidman some slack about his losing streak – all of those defeats came against top contenders. But we can’t ignore how much damage he’s taken in three straight fights – he was stopped in three straight fights in brutal fashion. To make matters worse, the former champ is squaring up against a powerful, precise puncher in Gastelum.
Honestly, Gastelum could be a bigger favorite here, but this might be the fight Weidman can reestablish his wrestling. A former welterweight, Gastelum will be giving up some size. The first couple rounds should be close, with Weidman working hard for takedowns. But Gastelum is better equipped to go 25 minutes – he’s younger, faster and has taken far less damage thus far in his career.
Unfortunately, the time to bet Gastelum was a few weeks ago, when he was only around a -140 favorite. Today, he’s nearly a 2-1 favorite. Although Weidman’s money line has gone up from +115, it’s still not enough to justify an underdog play in a bad matchup.
Cherry Pick: Gastelum to win at -191
Dennis Bermudez -200 vs. Darren Elkins +160
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +210
Matchup & Betting Analysis
Elkins is coming off one of the best last-minute comebacks in recent memory – a miracle stunner against prospective future contender Mirsad Bektic. But let’s not get carried away here. Elkins is basically the featherweight Matt Brown: a physically limited fighter who never stops scrapping and scrambling. 99 times out of 100 he loses to Bektic.
Like Elkins, Bermudez is a guy that’s only lost to the division’s best fighters, but he simply has more tools to work with. “The Menace” is a better athlete, hits hard and can wrestle. His takedowns will be the difference-maker, given the fact that Elkins only stops attempts at a 40% rate.
Though Bermudez to win isn’t cheap, his money line is a solid pick. The over is safer, as both men finish fights at a 50% clip or less. But since the over is even more expensive than Bermudez’ money line, play it as a parlay.
Cherry Pick: Parlay over 2.5 rounds at -265
Jimmie Rivera -200 vs. Thomas Almeida +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -200, under +160
Matchup & Betting Analysis
Once-beaten bantamweights collide with title contention on the line. Rivera is a short, stocky fighter who fights exactly how you’d expect a fighter with his frame to fight. “El Terror” crowds the pocket, throws tight, powerful combinations and uses his low center of gravity to control clinch exchanges.
Almeida loves to pressure as well, and he’s ultra violent in typical Chute Box fashion. He’s a natural counterstriker who loves to swarm when given the opening. However, he’s never had to deal with a guy like Rivera, who will take away the space he needs to operate.
Cherry Pick: Rivera to win at -200
Check out the very latest UFC on Fox 25 odds by clicking here.
