No fighter embodies the “anyone, anywhere, any time” spirit more than Donald Cerrone. Case in point: this Saturday, “Cowboy” travels to Gdansk, Poland, to meet a relatively unknown (and undefeated) Darren Till in a high-risk, low reward UFC Fight Night 118 main event. On UFC Fight Pass.
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A star like Cowboy could easily turn down fights like this – but this is a fighter who truly loves to fight. How else can you explain him agreeing to face an unranked fighter like Till who poses a huge threat to Cerrone’s rank? On paper, this should be an extremely competitive matchup between two advanced strikers.
Also on the card is native Pole Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who is looking to bounce back from two straight losses after starting her career 10-0. Joining her are fellow countrymen Jan Blachowicz and Gdansk’s own Oskar Piechota.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the best betting picks for each of the main card scraps.
Donald Cerrone -155 vs Darren Till +125
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -180, under +140
Betting Breakdown
It’s crazy that Till is such a slight underdog, considering the fact that he’s hardly known outside hardcore circles and he’s an unranked fighter facing the No. 6 welterweight in Cerrone. But while Cowboy’s accomplishments far outshines Till’s, this is a tough matchup for him.
Cerrone can be picked apart by elite strikers and he’s vulnerable to power shots – Robbie Lawler, Jorge Masvidal and Rafael dos Anjos all exploited these weaknesses. Obviously, Till isn’t in the same class as those guys yet, but he is a polished and dangerous striker with 9 KOs in 15 career wins.
Still, this is probably too big of a jump for Till, who has been facing guys like Jessin Ayari and Bojan Velickovick. If anything, Cerrone can fall back on an underrated wrestling game to attack Till where he’s weakest.
How You Should Bet
Cerrone at -140 is playable, but Till is definitely a live ‘dog’. The rounds over is probably the safest play in this matchup, although it’s certainly not an ideal price.
Our Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -170
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -455 vs Jodie Esquibel +350
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -275, under +225
Betting Breakdown
The odds reflect that this is a bounceback fight for Kowalkiewicz. We’re not saying that Esquibel is a scrub, but the former TUF 23 competitor doesn’t exactly project to be anything more than a mid-tier strawweight. Plus, Kowalkiewicz will likely get the biggest home crowd advantage of the night as she’s the country’s most popular fighter on this card.
Still, KK has never been a physically dominant fighter. She wins fights with her durability, cardio and scrappiness. Her kickboxing background gives her confidence on the feet, but her lack of athleticism and natural strength caps her ceiling. In other words, Kowalkiewicz is always in danger of being in a close fight.
How You Should Bet
A small bet on Esquibel wouldn’t be a bad idea, considering her price. If you’d prefer not to be so reckless, the rounds over at -255 is your best bet. Neither woman is a finisher. At this price, use the rounds over as a parlay booster.
Our Pick: Parlay over 2.5 rounds at -275
Jan Blachowicz +120 vs. Devin Clark -150
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -175, under +155
Betting Breakdown
Blachowicz is a big, lumbering fighter who likes to kickbox at range. While he has an advantage on the feet, his lack of cardio and meager 50% takedown defense could really hurt him in this matchup. Clark isn’t as technical a striker, but he’s a good athlete who can wrestle. If he commits to the takedowns, Clark should be able to win in hostile territory.
How You Should Bet
Clark showed in his last matchup against Jake Collier that he can dedicate himself to a takedown-heavy gameplan to break opponents down. While he might now be able to take Blachowicz down right away, the Pole’s gas tank will empty at some point. Clark’s price isn’t too bad.
Our Pick: Clark to win at -150
Jonathan Wilson +155 vs. Oskar Piechota -195
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -125, under -105
Betting Breakdown
Piechota hails from Gdansk, so he’ll have a fired up crowd behind him. 9-0 with nine finishes, Piechota could be a solid prospect at 185 pounds, but his record’s been built against .500 fighters in tiny promotions. Wilson is dropping down from 205 after two straight losses, but he’s an explosive striker with knockout power.
How You Should Bet
We typically fade fighters making UFC debuts, and this fight is no different. A small bet on Wilson pays out a decent amount, and he’s the bigger, stronger man in this matchup.
Our Pick: Wilson to win at +155
(Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.eu)
