Brandon Moreno and Anthony Pettis are both 23 years old and rising quickly in the flyweight division. While they might not be legit title contenders just yet, the winner of their main event matchup this Saturday will likely enter the top five at 125.
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To be honest, it’s not the strongest Fight Night offering – but there are a few matchups you definitely should catch:
Women’s strawweight prospect Alexa Grasso gets back into the cage after suffering her first career loss. Former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans is still looking for his first win in years. And the always-entertaining Alan Jouban tests the undefeated Niko Price in scrap that’s sure to feature plenty of hard knocks.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get into a few smart plays.
Sergio Pettis +140 vs Brandon Moreno -179
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -165, under +135
Preview & Betting Analysis
Let’s stop comparing Pettis to his older brother. Sure, they look alike and train at the same camp, but Sergio is much less flashy and far more strategic with his striking. Pettis is at his best at range when he is switching stances and scoring points with fluid kick-punch combinations. Defensively, his takedown defense is solid and he is noted submission threat.
Moreno might not have a famous surname, but he’s already make his mark in the division. First, he submitted an excellent grappler in Louis Smolka. Then he bested the heavy-handed Ryan Benoit for a tough split decision. After subbing a fellow prospect like Dustin Ortiz, the 23-year old is quickly evolving into a fully evolved fighter.
While Moreno’s standup might be rapidly improving, this isn’t the matchup where he wants to test his striking. He might be forced to, as Pettis comes into the bout with a takedown defense above 70%. Cardio might be an issue as well – this is Mexico City after all.
Our pick: Pettis to win at +140
Alexa Grasso -160 vs Randa Markos +130
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -300, under +240
Preview & Betting Analysis
Though Grasso is coming off a loss to Felice Herrig, one gets the sense that it was a fight she could have won had she simply been more active. She is already one of the division’s smoothest strikers at 23 years old, but the Mexican fighter can be patient to a fault.
Against somebody as scrappy as Randa Markos, Grasso cannot afford long bouts of inactivity. Markos is constantly pushing forward, initiating clinches and changing levels to take the fight to the ground. Grasso has the speed and footwork to avoid the type of ugly fight that Markos wants, and her takedown defense is generally pretty good.
Our pick: Grasso to win at -160
Alan Jouban -165 vs Niko Price +135
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -145, under +115
Preview & Betting Analysis
Don’t be surprised if this scrap wins Fight of the Night. Both Jouban and Price are pressure strikers who aren’t afraid to stand and trade. Jouban has always been a big welterweight, but his size comes at the cost of speed and stamina. A smaller Gunnar Nelson was able to light Jouban up with counters until “Brahma” was softened up for a submission.
Price might be known as a free swinger, but he’s showed solid wrestling skills in his debut against Brandon Thatch. Even if he doesn’t resort to takedowns, Price has the high pace and aggression to overwhelm a slow starter like Jouban.
Our pick: Price to win at +135
Rashad Evans+125 vs Sam Alvey -155
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -180, under +140
Preview & Betting Analysis
Yes, Rashad Evans is still fighting. Whether he should be is a legitimate question. Not only did he lose to Daniel “Dadbod” Kelly in his middleweight debut, Evans looked like he had nothing left. In his prime, Evans relied on explosive counters and opportunistic wrestling. Now, at 37 with multiple surgeries in the rearview mirror, the athleticism that his style relied on is gone.
It’s a shame, since Alvey is the type of big, lumbering fighter that the old Evans would have danced around. Now, Evans is more likely to get bullied by the bigger, younger man and suffer his fourth straight loss.
Our pick: Alvey to win at -155
Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 114 betting odds.
