You’ve got to hand it to Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee for drumming up some interest in their matchup this Saturday at UFC Fight Night 112. Before the two had to be separated at press conference a while back, their pairing wasn’t really a bit of matchmaking that had many people excited. Even more so since it was a main event.
But now they’ve got personal beef, and that’s a good thing since more people will tune into see a pair of very good lightweights square off – with contention just another win or two away.
The rest of the card ain’t too shabby either: there’s fading legend B.J. Penn, back at it again. Former welterweight champ Johny Hendricks will look to build on his middleweight resume, and hype-killer Felice Herrig squares up against yet another undefeated prospect.
There’s plenty to gamble on, so let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and go over your betting options.
Michael Chiesa -105 vs Kevin Lee -125
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Preview & Betting Analysis
In one corner, you’ve got a very good wrestler in Kevin Lee. In the other, a talented submission grappler in Michael Chiesa. Neither are particularly good strikers, but Lee has shown some pop while Chiesa’s wild style can be bewildering.
The money lines are close because they’re pretty evenly matched. Lee gets the slight nod as the favorite since he’s younger, stronger and has the better physical tools to work with. Still, this scrap feels like a toss-up. And without a +120 or above underdog to bet on, that makes it difficult to confidently pick a winner.
So in this case, the over/under is probably your best bet. Oddsmakers have split this five-rounder down the middle at 2.5 rounds, with an pick’em at -110. If you think about it, these dudes aren’t going to be punching each other out, which makes a clinch/grappling fest likely. That sort of fight eats up clock, so the over is the play
Our pick: over 2.5 rounds at -110
B.J. Penn +200 vs Dennis Siver -250
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under -105
Preview & Betting Analysis
No disrespect to B.J. Penn, but the guy is done. Cooked. Shot. Longtime fight fans cringe every time they see his name on a lineup, ‘cause he pretty much plays the part of human punching bag when he laces up. It’s like watching an old Jordan get torched by a young Allen Iverson, except in this scenario AI has a 15-minute crossover.
The UFC is finally downgrading his competition with Dennis Siver, but that only moves him from “hard no” to just “nah” when it comes to laying coin on his money line. Penn’s got no cardio, has switched his fighting stance in two straight fights, and hasn’t actually mounted any offense in years.
Siver is no killer, but he’s still a legitimate fighter. He can go three rounds and has a good kickboxing background. That’s enough to make him a good play against Penn.
Our pick: Siver to win at -250
Johny Hendricks -230 vs Tim Boetsch +180
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Preview & Betting Analysis
Johny Hendricks looked like a man renewed in his first middleweight bout against Hector Lombard. Apparently, “Bigg Rigg” likey no weight cutting. But here’s the thing: Lombard is also a former welterweight, and Boetsch is a true 185-pounder. The size difference could be a factor.
If “The Barbarian” were a bit younger, he’d have a pretty good chance at gutting out an upset. As things stand today, he’s a bit too slow and lumbering for the smaller, quicker Hendricks – who is a solid boxer with a cracking left. Boetsch might have some success in the clinch, but Hendricks will have the advantage everywhere else.
Our pick: Hendricks to win at -230
Felice Herrig -125 vs Justine Kish -105
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -280, under +200
Preview & Betting Analysis
Herrig gets a second straight fight against an undefeated prospect. First, it was a technical striker in Alexa Grasso. Now, she meets an aggressive swarmer in Justine Kish.
The big difference here is that Grasso’s inactivity let Herrig get her shots off and win on volume. She will have no such luxury against Kish, who rushes in at every opportunity to light up her opponents. The Russian is also a very big strawweight, having failed twice to make the 115-pound limit.
Neither explosive nor athletic, Herrig is going to have a tough time with Kish’s pressure-based style. Her win over Grasso was a nice story, but Kish is going to send her back to the end of the line.
UFC odds pick: Kish to win at -105
Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 112 odds.
