We’re just over a week away from the UFC’s first major pay-per-view card of 2018, and there’s a ton of updates from the sportsbook you need to be aware of.
There’s been some notable line movements for both the main and co-main event, as well as opening odds for the undercard and prelim bouts. With no major MMA cards this week, it’s as good as time as any to check in to see what you, the savvy sports bettor, can take advantage of now.
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Of course, you could wait till fight night to make last-minute bets, but there’s always a big chance that the odds could swing out of your favor. Locking in your bets now would be prudent and could make a big difference in what you take home.
Let’s take a look at the UFC 223 odds at BookMaker.eu and break it all down.
Main Event
Current Odds: Khabib Nurmagomedov -250 vs. Tony Ferguson +200
(Opening Odds: Khabib Nurmagomedov -200 vs. Tony Ferguson +160)
Movement Analysis
Bettors are flocking to the Dagestani terror, driving the lines to prompt more bets on Ferguson in the span of a few weeks. A 50-point swing is significant, though we don’t imagine Ferguson staying at +200 for long. That’s too good a money line on a killer with a real chance of winning to stick around.
Remember, you’re playing the numbers, not the fighters. For Ferguson, this very well could be the best line you’ll get, so pulling the trigger now will be smart. If you truly believe Nurmagomedov has got this, then check back in next week when his price will definitely be more affordable.
Co-Main Event
Current Odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk -165 vs. Rose Namajunas +135
(Opening Odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk -225 vs. Rose Namajunas +180)
Movement Analysis
A ton of folks clearly loved Thug Rose’s opening line of +180. A flood of early betting has driven her price to +135, which really makes you pause. J-Check as more than a 2-1 favorite did seem a bit too high, but she absolutely should be the favorite.
So was Namajunas’ easy win a fluke KO? If you think so, you’re in a good spot, as the action has done you a solid – Jedrzejczyk’s money line is definitely playable as a straight play. The comeback on Namajunas isn’t as tempting as it once was, but you still get a solid payout, and let’s not forget how she crushed the former champ in less than a round.
New UFC 223 Odds Additions
Anthony Pettis -120 vs. Michael Chiesa +100
Felice Herrig +155 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -175
Al Iaquinta -140 vs. Paul Felder +120
Chris Gruetzemacher +130 vs. Joe Lauzon -160
Calvin Kattar -165 vs. Renato Moicano +135
Early Reactions
We really, really love Chiesa as an underdog. He’s a bad style matchup for Pettis, who struggles against strong wrestlers. We don’t see these lines lasting, so jump all over this one.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a big favorite against Herrig, but Lil Bulldog’s price isn’t good enough right now to force our hand. If Herrig can get anywhere around +175, then it’s time to consider pulling the trigger.
The fact that Felder is only a +120 underdog against Al Iaquinta shows how underrated he is. Ragin’ Al is easily the more recognized fighter – thanks to his withering Twitter game – but he fights so infrequently it’s hard to judge how good he really is. If Felder gets to around +150 we’ll take it all day.
Another underdog you should keep track of is Renato Moicano at +135. Calvin Kattar is a hot prospect, but Moicano is every bit as talented, has a victory over Jeremy Stephens, and kept it close with Brian Ortega until he got caught with a flash sub.
View the latest UFC 223 betting odds.
