Get ready, fight fans: this Saturday’s UFC 213 is a helluva card – even with the losses of Cerrone-Lawler and Garbrandt-Dillashaw. It might not be quite the level of UFC 211 or the upcoming UFC 214, but it’s definitely got its merits.
The main and co-main event are both title fights that feature the most violent fighters in their respective divisions – Amanda Nunes and Yoel Romero.
Alistair Overeem, the premier knockout-or-be-knocked-out heavyweight, meets former champion Fabricio Werdum in a high stakes rematch.
Former lightweight champ Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, who made jumping off the cage walls to blast opponents an actual thing, meets Jim Miller – who has a Fight of the Year and nine post-fight bonuses under his belt.
Properly hyped yet? Good. There’s a lot of ground to cover here, so let’s jump right into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and assign Cherry Picks and Underdog Specials.
Cherry Picks Record: 31-23-1
Underdog Specials Record: 7-3
Amanda Nunes – 125 vs Valentina Shevchenko -105
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Nunes didn’t just retired Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate in back-to-back fights – the Brazilian smashed through the division’s two biggest stars so brutally that she might as well have been charged for felony assault.
We’ve never seen somebody that hits as hard as Nunes at 135 – girls just aren’t supposed to have that type of knockout power. On top of that, she’s a stud athlete with world-class BJJ credentials to boot.
The only thing keeping Nunes back is her cardio. In her first fight against Shevchenko, the “Lioness” took the first two rounds, gassed badly in the third and escaped with a win. So it might be easy to assume that in a five-rounder, Shevchenko would have ample time to exhaust the champ.
That’s a dangerous assumption to make. For starters, Nunes is now at American Top Team and has been focusing on her cardio for the past couple years – never underestimate an elite training staff. She won’t be able to batter an accomplished Muay Thai fighter like Valentina, but if she can focus her destructive outbursts and conserve energy this is her fight to lose.
Still, picking a winner will be difficult, considering that there is a strong argument for Shevchenko and the fact that both fighters’ money lines are in the negative. The best play here is the over on 2.5 rounds – Shevchenko is tough, durable and extremely patient, while Nunes will likely pace herself for 25 minutes.
Cherry Pick: Over 2.5 rounds
Yoel Romero – 130 vs Robert Whittaker +100
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -155, under +135
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Romero is basically a Sasquatch masquerading as a human, but Whittaker is the type of fast, skilled fighter that fits the giant-slayer mold. So do you take Romero’s unreal ability to end the fight in a split second, or go with Whittaker’s punishing pace and striking?
Whittaker is undoubtedly better equipped to go five rounds, but that also gives Romero 25 minutes to unleash an outburst that rearranges the young Aussie’s face. We saw in his fights against Weidman and Tim Kennedy that Romero can capitalize on the smallest of errors to turn a close fight into a bloodbath.
If Whittaker were a bigger underdog, he’d make a fantastic pick. But after his sensational performance against Jacare Souza, “The Reaper” ain’t flying under the radar anymore.
The over/under is the way to go here, and we’ll take the over. Whittaker is fast enough to stay out of danger, and no matter how much pressure he applies Romero has only been knocked out once.
Cherry Pick: Over 1.5 rounds
Alistair Overeem -137 vs Fabricio Werdum +107
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Overeem might be one of the most dangerous finishers in the world, but his chin and cardio are all but shot at this point. It only takes a few clean shots to his dome to leave in a wobbly state from which he can’t recover.
If Werdum gets past the first round, his chances of winning skyrocket. But he’s got to make the fight ugly, something he’s pretty good at. If he serves up a steady dose of clinches and forces messy exchanges, Overeem will be an exhausted target before the end of round two. The staff at King’s MMA will make sure he forces the issue, making Werdum a good underdog bet.
Underdog Special: Werdum to win at +107
Check out the latest UFC 213 betting odds. Click here.
