The UFC heads to Rio de Janeiro this Saturday for a pay-per-view card featuring high stakes for some of the country’s best fighters.
In the main event, Jose Aldo will look to re-establish his dominance over the 145 pound weight class in a title unification match against interim champion Max Holloway. The young Hawaiian has done his part to rile up the the Brazilian, but more importantly he could set a new course for the division should he become just the second man to beat Aldo over 10 years.
The co-main event features women’s No. 1 strawweight contender Claudia Gadelha in a clash against No. 2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Both women are elite fighters who have only lost to a single opponent: current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Also on the card, future UFC hall of famer Vitor Belfort will step into the cage for the final time after a distinguished 20-plus year career. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and point out some Cherry Picks and Underdog Specials for fight night.
Cherry Picks Record: 30-22-1
Underdog Specials Record: 5-2
Jose Aldo (-149) vs Max Holloway (+119)
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -170, under +140
Preview & Betting Analysis
Only one man has defeated Aldo in the last decade: Conor McGregor. Nobody else has come relatively close – although there have been a few scary moments. The Brazilian has been too fast and too skilled on the feet for the rest of the division.
Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Aldo has yet to turn 30 – he has plenty of prime athletic years left in him. However, he’s facing his most dangerous challenger since getting starched by the Irishman.
Currently riding a 10-fight winning streak, Max Holloway has only improved with each passing fight. His past five fights have been particularly impressive, as each were top-10 opponents that he handled with ease. Though he might not be as fast as Aldo, Holloway is still plenty quick and is the taller, rangier fighter.
When it comes to the UFC odds, Holloway would be a sound choice if his line goes up at all. Still, he’s a solid Underdog Special pick. The safe route would be the over on 4.5 rounds, as both men are extremely durable. Holloway isn’t a one-punch KO artist, and Aldo has only been knocked out once in 28 fights.
Cherry Pick: Over 4.5 rounds at -170
Underdog Special: Holloway to win at +119
Claudia Gadelha (-345) vs Karolina Kowalkiewciz (+260)
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -350, under +250
Preview & Betting Analysis
Though Kowalkiewicz put on an admirable performance against Joanna Champion, Gadelha’s massive favorite status is justified. She is physically superior in every way, from strength to athleticism to speed.
What KK has going for her is toughness, but she’d need five rounds to really stand a chance at upsetting Gadelha. To date, the Brazilian’s only weakness has been her cardio, but that only really mattered against Jedrzejczyk, who forced Gadelha to exhaust herself with grueling takedown attempts.
Gadelha is an easy pick to win – her money line is parlay fodder. The under on 2.5 rounds deserves a long, hard look as well. Gadelha is a physical savage who could very well become the first fighter to stop KK. If she gets this matchup to the ground early, her world-class BJJ or brutal GNP is a difference-maker.
Cherry Pick: Parlay Gadelha to win at -345
Underdog Special: Under 2.5 rounds +250
Vitor Belfort (-160) vs Nate Marquardt (+130)
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +180, under -250
Preview & Betting Analysis
I’ll get straight to the point: you should probably bet ANY underdog who is a decent fighter against Vitor Belfort. The man is 40 years old and fights like he’s 10 years older ever since TRT was banned from competition.
Though “The Phenom” will be fired to score one last win in front of his countrymen, his window to victory closes after a few dangerous minutes. Even though Marquardt’s well past his prime and will likely follow Belfort into retirement soon, he is smart enough and skilled enough to survive a first-round blitz.
Belfort has had an amazing career, but you don’t bet on a fighter based on his past. Take Marquardt as an underdog.
Underdog Special: Marquardt to win at +130
Check out the latest UFC 212 betting odds.
