The most loaded, highly anticipated UFC fight card in history is just a few days away.
Get ready, because this Saturday’s UFC 200 features (taking a deep breath) the MMA GOAT, the promotion’s highest selling superstar, eight current and former champions, three title fights, the king of walkoff knockouts, one golden boy, brawlers galore and multiple-time Performance of the Night winners.
It is an insane card from the main event to the prelims, and the finale to an extraordinary week of MMA that features three cards in three straight nights. Milestones like this only come around once every couple years, so for MMA fans this is like the Super Bowl, World Series, Kentucky Derby and Masters all rolled up into one.
From a betting perspective, this is a gambler’s paradise. There are nearly 40 fights to bet on from Thursday through Saturday, but we’re putting all our focus on these fight odds. UFC 200 odds courtesy of Bookmaker.eu.
Daniel Cormier (+260) vs Jon Jones (-315)
The story of this rematch is the same as the first: Jones is 6” taller than Cormier and 12” longer in terms of reach. That’s like an extra forearm. And somehow, he manages to fight even longer than he is by utilizing side and oblique kicks to the lead leg. So basically, kickboxing with Jones must feel a lot like fighting a real-life version of Dhalsim. Not fun for opponents.
In their first scrap, DC was unable to use his vaunted wrestling to get Jones to the ground. In fact, it was Jones who took Cormier down on multiple occasions. Given that Jones is still just 28 and in no way diminished physically or skillwise, there is no reason to believe that the champion will be able to successfully impose his wrestling. And DC unable to use his wrestling is basically a cat without claws – still scary, but limited.
Best UFC Betting Value
Jones is a fair price at -315. While it’s an expensive moneyline, it’s not completely ridiculous like the odds we see in some boxing mismatches. However, the best value lies in the over on 4.5 rounds at -145. Their first fight went the distance, Cormier has never been stopped, and Jones’ past four have reached the final bell.
UPDATE: Jon Jones has been pulled from his bout against Daniel Cormier at UFC 200 on Saturday, after the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency informed Jones of a potential doping violation Wednesday. A heavyweight fight between Brock Lesnar and Mark Hunt will now headline UFC 200.
Brock Lesnar (+150) vs Mark Hunt (-175)
MMA might be a sport where skill trumps size, but Brock Lesnar is the type of massive human being that completely negates many MMA skills. In fact, he probably takes said skills and blends them into a protein shake along with a few horses for an afternoon snack. It’s how he won the UFC heavyweight title in just his fourth pro fight.
It’s not like Mark Hunt is a small guy, but he’s giving up 4” in height and approximately 3000% body fat percentage to Lesnar. What’s more, the Kiwi offers zero threat of submission on his back.
If Brock does his usual Bald Bull charge, I’m not so sure that Hunt can stop it. And on top, Lesnar is so strong he can do pretty much anything he wants. Hell, he could probably force half the heavyweight division to play the “why are you hitting yourself” game that’s tortured younger siblings since the dawn of time.
Best UFC Betting Value
Hunt is the favorite here because Lesnar famously does not like to be hit, and “The Super Samoan” is notorious for his one-punch walkout wins. That being said, Lesnar is strongest where Hunt is weakest, and his +150 money line is a fantastic value.
Amanda Nunes (+210) vs Miesha Tate (-250)
Will the women’s 135-pound title change for the third time in as many fights? Probably nah. But maybe yah? Nunes is one of the best Muay Thai practitioners in the division, and Tate just so happens to be a rudimentary striker at best. If this fight ends up a kickboxing match, Nunes should be able to pick the champ apart.
But Tate is a wrestler by trade, and there’s little chance that this fight doesn’t go to the mat. And Nunes has huge issues with her cardio, which is a cardinal sin against grinders like Miesha. The Brazilian has trouble fighting three rounds, so expecting her to go five rounds against a cardio machine is a bit much.
Best UFC Betting Value
I have to admit, Nunes at +210 is compelling. In fact, I think that bet might even look smart for the first two rounds. But Miesha is one of the most experienced women fighters in the world, and will drain Nunes’ energy by the third round. From there, it’ll be all Tate. If you’re not liking Tate’s -250 money line, then consider the over at -225. It’s a bit odd that the over/under is so low at 1.5, and it’s highly likely these women will go well past that.
Frankie Edgar (-115) vs Jose Aldo (-105)
This might be an interim title fight, but let’s just call it what it is: The Fight for the Right to Fight Conor McGregor. Both men have been chasing the Irishman for the better part of the year, but holding the interim belt pretty much guarantees a unification bout later on in the future. From a pure fight standpoint, this might be the best match on the roster.
If you add up all the skills of Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo, the sum would be greater than any other fight on this card. They possess elite abilities in multiple areas, like boxing, wrestling and movement from Edgar and Muay Thai, Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and athleticism for Aldo. This fight could easily headline its own pay-per-view card.
Best UFC Betting Value
Honestly, this fight should be a pick’em, so in that case I’ll take the underdog. Aldo has already beaten Edgar once, and his athleticism neutralizes “The Answer’s” wrestling.
Cain Velasquez (-300) vs Travis Browne (+250)
Fight fans make a lot of excuses for Cain, like ring rust and high altitudes. But there’s a very good reason that they do so: he has the highest ceiling of any fighter in the division. When Velasquez is healthy and prepared, he looks unstoppable. And guess what, he’s fully healthy and fighting at sea level.
While Travis Browne is a very good striker, the lanky fighter won’t have any room to get off once Cain gets him into the clinch. And while Browne’s 6’7” frame works great for sparring matches, it doesn’t help to have such a high center of gravity against a wrestling dynamo like Cain. He’s going to be on his back, a lot.
Best UFC Betting Value
Velasquez is a 3-1 favorite and a solid play. Although you’ll have to bet $300 to win $100, UFC predictions favor Cain considerably. You’ll find much better values with the 1.5 over/under, but it’s difficult to predict how long it will take for Velasquez to dismantle Browne. I like the over, but simply because it’s such a larger time frame.
Check out a full analysis of the Lesnar vs Hunt match at UFC 200 Odds: Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt
