Is there a college football program more overhyped and overrated than the Texas AM Aggies? Notre Dame comes to mind, but at least the Irish enjoyed some success back in the day. Ranked in the top-10 before the season started, the Aggies have plummeted out of the polls following an embarrassing 42-24 loss to Mississippi State.
Maybe they were looking ahead to the Week 6 showdown with the Alabama Crimson Tide, but there’s no excuse for the loss to App State in Week 2. The Aggies might catch a break with Bama’s Bryce Young nursing a sore shoulder and listed as day to day. Still, the Tide opened as a 24-point home favorite.
The Week 6 college football game between the Texas AM Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 8, 2022 and will be televised on CBS.
Texas AM vs Alabama Odds
Texas AM Aggies +24
Alabama Crimson Tide -24
Over/Under 50.5
Odds Analysis
Laying a lot of points is nothing new for the top-ranked team in the country. Alabama has been a double digit favorite in every game this season with the smallest spread last week against Arkansas. Bama was a 17-point road favorite covering the line in a 49-26 win improving to 4-1 ATS. And the Tide has spotted Texas AM at least 17 points in each of the previous six meetings going 3-3 ATS. The Aggies ended an eight-game losing streak in the series winning at home 41-38 last year with the teams playing OVER the total in a fourth straight meeting. The total hasn’t moved since hitting the board at 50.5.
Texas AM Aggies
It’s possible the Aggies were looking ahead to this matchup. And it would be understandable given the friction between head coaches. Unfortunately they just aren’t good enough to overlook any opponent. And it doesn’t help when they are careless with the football. It will take a near perfect game to beat the Tide leaving the Aggies with plenty of work to do. They committed four turnovers against MSU, three of which occurred inside the red zone, effectively snuffing out scoring opportunities. Jimbo’s group closed as a 4-point road dog failing to cover in the 42-24 setback dropping them to 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Though they allowed 473 total yards last week you can’t blame the defense. MSU returned a blocked field goal and an interception for a TD adding to the point total. Overall the Aggies are allowing an average of 17.8 points with the UNDER 4-1. And the defense will need to be stiff with an inconsistent offense. The Aggies are 109th in the 131-team FBS averaging 21.8 points and we’re unsure of the status of Max Johnson, who left last week’s game with an injury. Johnson took over for Haynes King following the loss to App State and played decent.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The news around Tuscaloosa isn’t about the upcoming game against the Aggies or the offseason feud between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban. Instead it’s about what happens to the Tide’s offense if Bryce Young misses time with a shoulder injury. Young was hurt scrambling in the 49-26 cover win over Arkansas on Saturday after throwing for 173 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts. Young left with a 28-0 lead and the offense sputtered under redshirt freshman Jalen Milroe. But great teams aren’t built around one player and Bama showed why it returned to the No. 1 ranking in college football. Milroe was 4 of 9 for 65 yards with a TD through the air, but the Tide leaned on its ground game to regain control.
Jahmyr Gibbs had a pair of long scoring jaunts in the second half totaling 206 of Bama’s 317 rushing yards. Saban said the injury to Young isn’t serious so it might be a good move to wait before throwing down on this one. If Young does play we could see the spread bet up, still 24-points is a lot if Milroe gets the nod. It might be tempting to go against Bama in this one, but keep in mind the Tide have won 41 straight home games and is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 when playing as a favorite. And it doesn’t seem to matter who they run out there.
Texas AM vs Alabama Prediction
We saw the Aggies get a huge 41-38 win last year when playing as an 18.5-point dog. And I do believe they’ll play better than what we saw against MSU. They are good enough defensively to at least slow down Bama’s offense and limiting turnovers will help on the other side of the football. Taking the points in this matchup looks like the smart play, which is why I’m going to do just that.
Prediction: Texas AM Aggies +24 and OVER 50.5
