To get to another Super Bowl Tom Brady will have to run the gauntlet of veteran future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. After disposing of Drew Brees and the Saints last week, Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Green Bay Packers Sunday for the NFC Championship. For the first time in his illustrious career Aaron Rodgers will play a conference title game on his home turf hoping to change the result from last season when the Pack was hammered by the 49ers. Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2010 season.
The NFC Championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers will take place on Sunday, January 24, 2021, at 3:05 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. The game will be televised nationally on FOX.
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Green Bay Packers NFC Championship Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Green Bay Packers -3
Over/Under 51
(Source: BookMaker.eu)
As we saw last week results from the regular season mean nothing once the playoffs roll around. So don’t read too much into Tampa Bay’s 38-10 win over the Packers in Week 6. And coincidentally, both conference championship games are a rematch from that regular season week with Kansas City defeating Buffalo in the AFC. Tampa avenged a pair of losses by beating New Orleans 30-20 as a 2.5-point dog last week. The Bucs haven’t lost a road game since October going 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS since. They haven’t had a lot of success at Lambeau Field losing two straight and 15 of the last 16 visits. But that was before the arrival of Brady, which changes everything.
The Packers reached the conference championship for the second straight season and the fourth time 11 years. They lost the last three games, but this one is different since it will be a home game. And the Packers are notoriously good on the frozen tundra. The Packers covered the 7-point line in their 32-18 win over the Rams last week, their sixth straight at home. Green Bay opened as a 4-point favorite with action on the Bucs moving that number down to -3. The Packers cashed the OVER in their last three games and in their last three home playoff encounters. The total is currently set at 51.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady was brought in for this and the Bucs are almost there. In a weird twist Tampa will have to win three playoff road games to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. And they are one win away from accomplishing that. They took care of New Orleans last week with Brady getting some redemption after two clunker outings during the regular season. And while the offense can score it was the play of the defense that got the win. The Bucs held New Orleans to 294 total yards, intercepted three Drew Brees passes and held Michael Thomas without a reception. And they’ll have to come up with another gem against Rodgers and the NFL’s highest scoring offense.
The Bucs took advantage of short fields to beat New Orleans, thanks to the turnovers. They shouldn’t expect the Pack to be so generous. That means the offense will have to click and Brady has a cadre of receivers to throw to led by Mike Evans. They also got decent production on the ground with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones each rushing for over 60 yards last week.
Green Bay Packers
Rodgers emerged as the front-runner for league MVP thanks to a terrific season that saw him throw for nearly 4,300 yards with a league-best and franchise record 48 touchdowns. I guess not drafting a receiver didn’t matter after all. The Packers led the NFL scoring 31.8 points per game and they were right on that number in beating the Rams 32-18 in the divisional round. More impressive was how Rodgers methodically dismantled the league’s top-ranked defense. Rodgers completed 23 of 36 for 296 yards and two touchdowns without taking a sack. Green Bay amassed 484 yards, which was almost 100 yards more than LA had allowed in a game all season.
Turnovers doomed the Packers in their earlier loss to Tampa. Rodgers threw only five interceptions all season with two of them coming in that game. It was easily his worst outing of the season with just 160 yards on 16 of 35 passing. Limiting turnovers will certainly help their chances and the Packers value the football with a league-low 11 giveaways this season. The Packers are 11-0 this season when not committing a turnover.
Buccaneers at Packers Prediction
Best Bet: Green Bay -3 and OVER 51
Brady’s playoff history is remarkable and the Bucs are a win away from becoming the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. But Rodgers finally gets the championship game in his backyard and the Packers certainly enjoy the home field advantage giving them the edge in this matchup.
