I guess we should know by now never to count out Aaron Rodgers. Left for dead a month ago following their seventh loss in eight games, Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are a win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football away from securing a wild card playoff berth.
There was some criticism with this game being moved since the Lions also need a win coupled with a Seattle loss to qualify. Should the Seahawks win their afternoon tilt, the Lions are removed from the postseason picture with nothing to play for. Detroit’s 15-9 payout win over the Pack in Week 9 was its second straight in the series.
The Week 18 Sunday Night Football contest between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers will take place at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI at 8:20 p.m. ET on January 8, 2023 and will be televised on NBC.
Lions vs Packers Odds
Detroit Lions +4.5 ( +184 )
Green Bay Packers -4.5 ( -220 )
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
You’re not going to please everyone and the league wants a matchup with something at stake in the final game of the regular season. In an ideal situation Seattle would lose meaning this is a true winner-take-all. I guess all that means is there will be some juggling with the spread between the end of the Seattle game and the start of this one. As it stands now the Packers are laying 4.5-points, up slightly after hitting the board Green Bay -4. The total also jumped a half-point after opening at 49. The Pack put themselves in position for the final spot by going 4-0 SU and ATS over the last month. After opening the season with one win in seven games, the Lions are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS over their last nine outings.
Detroit Lions
Having the Lions playing the final week with a playoff spot on the line is certainly unexpected after their rough start. You could say there was writing on the wall, though. Four of their six setbacks during the first half of the season were by four points or less. Credit Dan Campbell and the coaching staff for keeping the team engaged during that time since everyone else was writing the Lions off. Their second half surge started with a 15-9 home win over Green Bay in Week 9. Detroit has been profitable at the betting window as well with payouts in eight of their last nine games going 11-5 ATS overall for the third-best cover percentage in the NFL.
While he hasn’t won a Super Bowl, Jared Goff definitely has the better of Matthew Stafford this season. Goff has the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL with 4,214 and his 29 TD passes have him tied for fourth. His seven interceptions are the fewest among quarterbacks with at least 330 pass attempts and he hasn’t thrown one in eight games. Goff shredded the Bears last week hitting 21 of 29 for 255 yards and three scores. It’s led to an offense that ranks among the top-5 in scoring (27.1) and total yards (383.6). Jamal Williams has rushed for 994 yards with 15 TDs and coupled with a defense that allows nearly 26 points per game, the OVER is 10-6.
Green Bay Packers
Rodgers did little last week yet the Packers dominated Minnesota 41-17. By his standards it’s been a down year, but Rodgers still has the club a win away from competing for the Lombardi Trophy, and once in the tournament anything can happen. So I guess this would be a good time for him to join the party. Rodgers threw for only 159 yards last week instead allowing the ground game, defense and special teams to shine. Aaron Jones had 111 of Green Bay’s 163 rushing yards and the defense forced four turnovers with one of three interceptions returned by Darnell Savage for a touchdown.
Special teams got in the act as well. We don’t see a lot of kickoffs being returned these days and fewer going back for a touchdown. However, Keisean Nixon showed us what that’s all about going 105 yards after the Vikings took a 3-0 lead. It started a 41-point barrage that carried Green Bay to a 41-17 victory. The Pack limited Kirk Cousins to 205 passing yards and they have the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL setting up a showdown of strengths. Green Bay also has the sixth-most takeaways in the league while the Lions have turned the ball over the fewest amount of times.
Lions vs Packers Prediction
Campbell said regardless of what happens earlier on Sunday the Lions are going to compete. And when he speaks people listen. This is Green Bay’s game to lose, though, and I don’t see that happening the way they’ve played the last few weeks. The Packers have come this far and tossing it all out the window in the final game would be heartbreaking. They will need Rodgers to have a bigger game, especially if this becomes a shootout, which could happen given the offensive firepower on both teams.
Our Prediction: Green Bay Packers -4.5 and OVER 49.5
