It may not seem like a Big Ten game with cross division rivals Penn State Nittany Lions and Purdue Boilermakers playing for the first time in three years, but there is plenty at stake right out of the chute. Playing in the rugged East with Ohio State and Michigan, the Lions can ill afford a Week 1 loss if they have any plans of winning the division.
And though they’ve won the last nine series meetings, Penn State will have its hands full against a resurgent Purdue squad that won nine games a season ago, its most in nearly two decades. Oddsmakers have taken notice setting the line with Penn State a 3.5-point favorite.
Penn State vs Purdue Date & Time
The Week 1 college football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Purdue Boilermakers will take place at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 1, 2022 and will be televised on FOX.
Penn State vs Purdue Odds
Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5
Purdue Boilermakers +3.5
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
It hasn’t been the best few years for Penn State with only 11 wins over the previous two seasons. In three of four seasons prior to that the Lions managed 11 wins and were a force in the East Division showing how good they were. They are looking to recover from a second half collapse last season that saw them go 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. It was a disappointing stretch and more painful considering they started 5-0 with a big season-opening outright win over Wisconsin as a 5.5-point dog. PSU won the past nine meetings with Purdue going 5-3-1 ATS while scoring at least 34 points in each of the last four matchups.
Last season was a breakout for Purdue winning nine games for the first time since 2003 and exceeding their win total from the previous two seasons combined. The Boilermakers ended the year winning six of eight games including a thrilling 48-45 OT decision over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl to finish 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS. Opening as a 3.5-point home dog is an upgrade from previous games with PSU. The Boilermakers were catching at least 14.5 points in each of the previous three meetings and were at least an 8-point dog in seven of the last nine games.
Penn State Nittany Lions
A pair of experienced quarterbacks will guide their teams in this matchup and two productive offenses bring the potential for points. Sean Clifford is back for another season after throwing for 3,107 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2021. He also amassed 163 yards and two scores on the ground bringing an element Purdue doesn’t have. He has a pair of experienced pass catchers in Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who combined for 98 receptions and seven touchdowns. PSU averaged nearly 280 yards through the air with scoring 26.3 points per game.
The defense will get a big early test to see just how it stacks up this season. The group was good last year allowing fewer than 17 points per game while tossing a pair of shutouts. They lost some talent up front but have standouts Joey Porter and Ji’Ayir Brown in the secondary. The group will have to step up against Purdue’s pass-happy offense. Some help from the D line getting pressure will be a key to this game.
Purdue Boilermakers
For the first time in several years football was kind of a big deal at Purdue. Expectations were not high entering 2021, but that changes after the club won nine games behind an offense that overwhelmed everyone over the last five games. In that span the Boilermakers averaged 39 points going 4-1 SU and ATS while cashing the OVER four times. Aiden O’Connell had a monster season completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 3,712 yards and 28 touchdowns. Without a ground game Purdue threw the ball a lot. Three times O’Connell had at least 52 pass attempts and six times he had at least 40 after becoming the full-time starter a month into the campaign.
Like most teams Purdue dipped into the transfer portal in an attempt to upgrade its defense. Overall the numbers looked good, but against better competition we saw them struggle to keep up. They have no run game averaging just 84.2 yards on the ground last season and will rely heavily on O’Connell. The hope is that he can duplicate last season’s performance.
Penn State vs Purdue Prediction
After their surprising last season Purdue won’t be overlooked by anyone. And with additional time to prepare for the offense they’re about to face, the Lions will be ready. They won’t stop O’Connell and the Boilermakers from scoring some points, but they will come up with key stops allowing them to overcome the home team in what should be a high scoring affair.
Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 / OVER 54.5
