For the last five contests against their division rival Oakland Raiders, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 4-1 record in NFL betting either against the spread or straight up. However, the Raiders have a 7-2 record against the spread in Arrowhead Stadium. So when the Chiefs host Oakland this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, placing a bet on this game is by no means easy.
The current point spread lists the Chiefs as 7-point favorites for NFL hot picks, while the total point line is 43.5. Both of these lines are given via Bookmaker.eu, and Bookmaker’s own computer rankings have the Chiefs winning by a score of 27-14. Given these facts, the Chiefs look to be easy favorites to cover both the margin of victory line and the total point line.
But as we know all too well, the NFL’s notorious catch phrase of “Any Given Sunday” rings true. While the Chiefs are still in contention for the division crown, the Raiders have nothing to play for; in fact, they would get a much better NFL draft pick by losing this game. Let’s take a look at the reasoning for both teams to cover the spread.
Why Oakland Will Cover the NFL Spread
The Raiders had an emotional victory at home last week, as Raiders icon Charles Woodson won his final home game. The Raiders defeated the San Diego Chargers in overtime, by a score of 23-20. Despite trailing for most of the game, Oakland came back to send the game to overtime, then won on a field goal followed by forcing a turnover on downs on defense.
The Raiders dominated San Diego in rushing yards by a total of 106-72, marking the fourth time in five games that they’ve out-rushed their opponents. With a 7-8 record, Oakland can finish with a .500 record. For the NFL betting lines, Oakland is 6-4 against the spread when not favored and an amazing 3-0 when they score more than six points.
Why Kansas City Will Cover the NFL Spread
The Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals each have a nine game win streak ongoing, after their 17-13 victory over the Cleveland Browns last week. The win also netted the Chiefs a playoff berth and a shot at the division crown.
Kansas City scored ten straight to open the game, then took a 17-3 lead at the half. Though the Browns actually gained more total yards, the Chiefs held on for the win; third time this year that the Chiefs were out-gained in total yards.
The Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread this season when conceding points, and a stellar 7-1 when allowing fewer than ten points. Given the Chiefs’ stout defense, this is a good bet.
Smart Pick
Given that the Raiders are out of the playoff chase, and the Chiefs are still in the divisional mix, the Chiefs are the smart pick here. Furthermore, there may be no hotter team in football betting right now than Kansas City.
NFL Betting Trends
Oakland is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games at Kansas City.
Oakland is 1-4 versus the spread against Kansas City in their last five games.
Oakland is 3-9 against the spread when coming off a win in their last dozen contests.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City’s last six games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in five of Kansas City’s last seven games when playing at home against Oakland.
[UPDATE]:Â Kansas City Chiefs won by 6 points, 23-17. A bet on the Chiefs is a loser, but UNDER is a winner.
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