The Russell Wilson era hasn’t been what most expected so far with the Denver Broncos’ offense struggling to score points. They did split their first four games, which is more than could be said about the Indianapolis Colts, who went the same bring-in-a-veteran-QB-to-get-us-over-the-hump route. Coming off losses to a divisional opponent the teams are looking to gain some traction when they square off in the NFL Week 5 edition of Thursday Night Football from the Mile High city.
The Week 5 Thursday Night Football contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos will take place at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver at 8:15 p.m. ET on October 6, 2022 and will be shown on Prime Video.
Colts vs Denver Broncos Odds
Indianapolis Colts +3
Denver Broncos -3
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
This is as close to a tossup as you’re going to get with Denver laying the obligatory 3-points as the home team. Both teams failed to build off Week 3 wins with cover losses on Sunday. The Broncos tallied a season-high point total but also saw their defense get shredded in a 32-23 loss in Las Vegas. They allowed a total of 36 points in the first three games cashing the UNDER each time. The Colts also fell to 1-3 ATS losing outright as a 4.5-point favorite to Tennessee. The addition of Matt Ryan has failed to ignite the offense with the Colts playing below the closing total for the fourth straight game.
Indianapolis Colts
We’ll see how injuries affect the line as we move forward. And with a short week they could be even more impactful. The Colts lost a key player on each side of the football in the loss to the Titans. Rushing leader Jonathan Taylor exited with a leg injury after totaling just 42 yards on 20 rush attempts. Running the football is a big part of Indy’s game plan and failing to do that causes problems. It did allow Ryan to have a big game completing 27 of 37 for 356 yards and a TD, but the Colts failed in the second half to complete the comeback. Ryan was responsible for two of three turnovers with a lost fumble and his fifth interception of the season giving Indy a total of nine giveaways.
The Colts figured they’d be better defensively with All-Pro Shaquille Leonard back in the lineup. They figured wrong and may have to go another game without their leading tackler from a season ago. Leonard didn’t make it through the first half after getting concussed in a collision with a teammate. And the defense that allowed an average of just 77 yards on the ground through the first three games got a dose of Derrick Henry. The Colts did a lot of things right outgaining Tennessee by over 100 yards and converted 53.8 percent of third downs. Turnovers and missed opportunities proved fatal, though.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos and Wilson had their best game of the season offensively. Unfortunately they also had their worst game on the other side of the football. Wilson completed 17 of 25 for 237 yards and a pair of scores and the Broncos had their highest point total of the season in the 32-23 setback. While the points were encouraging, they could’ve and should’ve had more wasting a number of short fields. The offense isn’t in sync causing Nathaniel Hackett to say, “We have to get better. Across the board as an offense, I think we will.” That’s not very encouraging from a coach who many thought was an offensive genius.
While the Broncos figure things out on offense they could at least rely on a defense that limited opponents to an average of 12 points through the first three weeks. That was good enough to get them a pair of wins while keeping the score below the closing total. However, the failure of Wilson and Co. to sustain anything kept the D on the field for nearly 35 minutes and the group crumbled. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and the Raiders amassed 212 yards averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Denver was also hit with injuries losing leading rusher Javonte Williams and Randy Gregory.
Colts vs Broncos Prediction
I feel bad for the Colts after playing a good game and losing to Tennessee. The numbers support a better outcome, but the deciding factor is points and Indy didn’t have enough, though they had chances. Maybe Pete Carroll knew exactly what he was doing when trading Wilson in a blockbuster deal this offseason. Denver’s QB looks nothing like the player who had so many shining moments in Seattle and has struggled to find any rhythm. And if the defense falls apart the Broncos will see more results like they had last week. Denver is unbeaten at home and the Colts have similar struggles, but I like the visitors to figure things out quicker.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +3 / UNDER 43
