The Miami Dolphins cleared a major hurdle last week knocking off Super Bowl favorite Buffalo to improve to 3-0. They face another stiff test with a matchup against the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals in the Week 4 edition of Thursday Night Football. The Bengals avoided disaster beating the Jets 27-12 for their first win and payout of the season and they have a chance to get back in the conversation of elite teams in the conference with a win over one of the few unbeatens. The opening NFL betting line put the Bengals as a slight 1.5-point favorite
The Week 4 Thursday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals will take place at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH at 8:15 p.m. ET on September 29, 2022 and will be shown on Prime Video.
Dolphins vs Bengals Odds
Miami Dolphins +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
For teams with potentially explosive offenses the total hit the board at 48.5. It seems low, but considering Miami did little against an undermanned group of Buffalo defenders I guess it should be expected. We’ve also yet to see Cincy do the things that made them so successful last season. Pegging the Bengals as a 1.5-point home favorite is a safe move by oddsmakers and I expect we’ll see movement when the betting public starts taking notice of this key early season AFC confrontation. The Bengals cashed the UNDER in each of their first three games and the UNDER is 8-0 in Cincy’s last eight games dating back to last season and including playoffs.
Miami Dolphins
The offense wasn’t as smooth as it had been, Tua Tagovailoa left the game briefly with an injury, yet the Dolphins still prevailed in the biggest game of their early season. Proving they are a team to be reckoned with, the Fins used a strong defensive effort to thwart Josh Allen and the Bills improving to 3-0 with a 21-19 victory. Miami won outright for the second straight week closing as a 4-point dog. They came back to beat Baltimore in Week 2 catching 3-points.
There are some concerns for the Dolphins with Tua after he left the game following an apparent head injury. He did return after halftime and finished the game 13 of 18 for 186 yards and a touchdown. For those who doubted him after a shaky start to his career, Tagovailoa so far has proved them wrong by completing over 71 percent of his throws for the season for 925 yards and nine TDs. The running game still lacks after getting 41 yards on 17 carries against the Bills. The Fins average 64 yards on the ground and need better balance so as not to hang their young quarterback out to dry.
Cincinnati Bengals
Their Week 3 contest with the Jets wasn’t a must-win, but it was about as close as the Bengals could get this early in the season. The odds for a team reaching the playoffs after starting 0-3 increase dramatically and that’s exactly what Joe Burrow and Co. were facing after a pair of 3-point setbacks. Slow starts crippled the club in its first two games failing to score a first half touchdown while being outscored 34-9 by Pittsburgh and Dallas in the first two weeks. Getting out of the gate stronger was a point of emphasis during the week and it paid off a touchdown on the opening drive against the Jets, leading Cincy to a much-needed 27-12 victory. They overcame a few penalties and converted three third-downs with Burrow tossing the first of his three TD passes to open things up.
After their sluggish first two games, Burrow and the offense hope to pick things up against the Dolphins. It’s no easy task though since the Fins did a nice job containing Josh Allen and the Bills. while the offensive production should get better, the Bengals have been stingy defensively allowing a little over 310 total yards and 18.3 points per game. The group absorbed a potential blow when starting lineman DJ Reader was sidelined in the first half with a knee injury.
Dolphins vs Bengals Predictions
We expected these clubs to be competing for a playoff berth and last week’s results show us why. The Dolphins made a statement with a win over Buffalo while the Bengals came through behind Burrow to avoid a winless opening month. There still are those that doubt Tagovailoa with me included. He’s off to a fine start with all the weapons, but the Fins had a hard time cracking a makeshift Bills defense. Now that the monkey if off Cincy’s back, and they are at home, I’ll back them and Burrow for the cover.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 / OVER 48.5
