Only two games separate AFC East co-leaders the Buffalo Bills from last place New England Patriots with a crucial game between the rivals set for the Week 13 edition of Thursday Night Football. The Bills wrapped up a tumultuous week winning two games in Detroit following a two-game losing skid to maintain a share of the division lead. After years of bowing to the Pats, Buffalo has seen an uprising taking four of the previous five meetings, the last a decisive 47-17 victory in last season’s Wild Card round. The Bills hit the board as a 5.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
The Week 13 Thursday Night Football contest between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will take place at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 8:15 p.m. ET on December 1, 2022 and will air on Prime Video.
Bills vs Patriots Odds (Week 13)
Buffalo Bills -5.5 ( -240 )
New England Patriots +5.5 ( +190 )
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Bills have to be used to playing on the road after getting displaced for their Week 11 game with Cleveland. That was moved to Detroit due to weather putting Buffalo on the road for three straight weeks. It turns out their little stay in MoTown was beneficial with wins over the Browns and Lions to right the ship following a two-game slide. They haven’t looked like a Super Bowl favorite going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS over their last five with the previous four all one-score games. The Pats had a chance to make things at the top of the AFC East more convoluted but their usual stingy defense had holes poked in it by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in a 33-26 setback on Thanksgiving snapping New England’s three-game winning streak. It was also just their second ATS loss in the last eight games.
Buffalo Bills
Ford Field in Detroit was the Bills home away from home with two wins in the span of five days. The second came on Thanksgiving with a last-second drive to beat the Lions 28-25. Josh Allen was magical throwing for 253 yards and two touchdowns while leading the team with 78 rushing yards and another score on 10 attempts. He led the game-winning drive with a little over 20 seconds on the clock by doing what he does best. He had a 36-yard completion and ran for 12 yards setting up Tyler Bass for the clinching field goal.
Allen has befuddled the Pats in the past throwing for 308 yards and five TDs in last season’s 47-17 playoff win giving the Bills a payday as a 4.5-point favorite. Just a few weeks before that game Allen was 30 of 47 for 314 yards and three TDs with an additional 64 yards on 12 rush attempts as Buffalo won 33-21 in Foxboro as a 1-point dog. After years of frustration against New England the Bills have exacted some revenge winning four of the previous five meetings, including the last two at Gillette Stadium scoring a total of 71 points in those games. The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
New England Patriots
The road back to the postseason got a little bit tougher with last week’s loss to Minnesota. After giving up just three points in each of the previous two games, the defense was scorched by Cousins, who completed 30 of 37 throws for 299 yards and three TDs. There were special teams breakdowns as well with the Vikings getting a kickoff return TD right after the Pats took the lead, a demoralizing circumstance indeed. Still one of the best stop units in the NFL, the Pats rank among the top-10 against the pass, against the run and in total yards allowed. They were 6-1 ATS before losing to Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog.
Almost overlooked in the Vikings game was the play of Mac Jones and the offense. Jones threw for a career-best 382 yards and two scores with another overturned on video replay. The controversial call in a tie game forced the Pats to settle for a field goal. And while the numbers were good the offense lagged in crunch time. The Pats were shutout in the fourth quarter punting twice with another turnover on downs. They were also just 3 for 10 on third down and failed to score a touchdown in three red zone trips.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
One thing Allen has done recently is pick the Patriots’ defense apart. And the group is vulnerable after allowing over 400 yards and 33 points to the Vikings. Buffalo lost one of its important defenders with Von Miller leaving last week due to injury. The teams have played some high-scoring affairs in the past and this one has the potential to be another making the OVER a strong play. Buffalo has been involved in a number of close games lately which is why I’m backing the points.
Prediction: New England Patriots +5.5 and OVER 44.5
