The hiring of Jeff Saturday wasn’t viewed favorably by a lot of folks around the NFL. The bottom line is that the Indianapolis Colts were underachieving and needed a change and apparently got that with the former player turned coach. The Colts upset Las Vegas two weeks ago and had the Eagles on the ropes before by succumbing by a point, though they did cover the spread for their second straight payout. The Pittsburgh Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, but unless something drastic happens that will change. Teams needing a win matchup in the week 12 edition of Monday Night Football with the Colts a slight 2.5-point favorite.
The Week 12 Monday Night Football contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN at 8:15 p.m. ET on November 28, 2022 and will be televised on ESPN.
Steelers vs Colts Odds (Week 12 MNF)
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 ( +120 )
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 ( -140 )
Over/Under 38.5
Odds Analysis
What really stands out in this game is the low total of 38.5. It makes sense, though, since only one team scores fewer points on average than the Colts and the Steelers have struggled with rookie Kenny Pickett behind center. It’s been a down year all around for the clubs with only seven wins between them. Indy has the better record and is playing at home thus they’ve been pegged as a 2.5-point favorite. After earning three payouts in their first eight games the Colts are 2-0 ATS since the coaching change. The Steelers followed up each of their first two wins with multiple-game losing streaks. They fell to Cincinnati last week after beating New Orleans for their third win of the year in Week 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers made the move to Pickett a few weeks ago and experienced growing pains initially. The rookie had his best game of the season last week and the Steelers put up a season-high point total, though they still lost 37-30. Pickett was 25 of 42 for 265 yards with his first TD pass in three games and just his third of the season. It’s safe to say the post-Ben Roethlisberger era started with a whimper. Averaging just 204.4 yards through the air has limited what the team can do offensively. It also hasn’t helped that they turned the ball over 14 times with eight of those coming on Pickett interceptions. A positive sign for the young QB is that he hasn’t been picked in two straight games.
With Pickett and Najee Harris, who rushed for 99 yards and two TDs, providing a spark, the Steelers were who they want to be on offense. The 30 points doubled their season average coming and was their most since scoring 23 on opening day. They cashed the OVER for just the fourth time. You’d expect the Steelers to win when scoring 30 points, but the defense was a letdown in the Cincinnati game. The return of Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt didn’t help with the Steelers allowing more than 20 points for the first time with Watt on the field.
Indianapolis Colts
Scoring has been more of an issue for the Colts this season with only the Broncos averaging fewer points per game. When Saturday took over one of his first moves was to reinstate Matt Ryan as the starting QB. The Sam Ehlinger experiment failed miserably just like we expected and Ryan gives the Colts their best chance at winning. He hasn’t been great this season with the offensive line a mess, but it was a reach to think the backup could do better. The Colts are playing hard under their new coach upsetting Las Vegas, 25-20, as a 4.5-point do ending a three-game SU and ATS slide.
Ryan completed 75 percent of his throws with a TD in the Las Vegas game and has completed 73.3 percent without a pick in his last two outings. Prior to getting hurt and replaced, Ryan led the NFL with nine picks. Also producing is Jonathan Taylor with 231 rushing yards and two TDs the past two games. Defensively the Colts played well enough to beat Philadelphia last week allowing just a field goal through three quarters. A late Eagles score, however, proved the difference in the 17-16 setback. They played below the total with the UNDER 9-2 for the season.
Steelers vs Colts Prediction
A few years ago when both teams were consistent threats in the AFC this would have been a great matchup. Not so this year with playoffs a long shot. There were signs over the past few weeks that the offenses were coming around making the OVER a strong play on the low total. The coaching change seemed to inspire Indy and I like the home team laying the short spread.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 and OVER 38.5
