After suffering one of the worst home losses in franchise history I guess the best thing for the Minnesota Vikings is to get right back on the field. They’ll do that on a short week with a Thanksgiving Thursday night game against the New England Patriots. I’m not sure an 8-2 team has been more scrutinized than the Vikings. They’ve beaten teams currently with losing records, faced a number of backup quarterbacks during a seven-game winning streak and all of them were one-score games. Heck even their win over Buffalo didn’t come without side notes. Given a chance to change the narrative the Vikings were manhandled 40-3 by Dallas last week only adding fuel to the fire.
The Week 12 Thursday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings will take place at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 24, 2022 and will be televised on NBC.
Patriots vs Vikings Odds
New England Patriots +3 ( +130 )
Minnesota Vikings -3 ( -150 )
Over/Under 42
Odds Analysis
Despite their meltdown last week the Vikings opened as a 3-point favorite in this matchup. They’ve been living on the edge and finally fell off on Sunday. That doesn’t change the fact that they’ve won eight of their 10 games and were 3-0-1 ATS in four games prior to the Dallas disaster. I guess every team gets a mulligan or two over the course of a season and the Vikings definitely had theirs. How they respond will tell us a lot about them. The Pats are on a nice run and helped their own cause in the AFC East beating the Jets 10-3 last week for their third straight win and fifth in six games. They’ve also padded the pocket book of backers going 6-1 ATS over the previous seven games. The Pats have been stellar defensively giving up three points in each of their last two games while cashing the UNDER in three straight.
New England Patriots
Climbing back into the division race by beating the Jets for the second time in three weeks, the Pats are a confident bunch heading into Thursday’s showdown. And while the defense has been good and dominant at times, they can’t rely on an effort like they put forth against the Jets every week. New England allowed just 103 total yards and only two yards in the second half keeping New York out of the end zone. Still, the game came down to the final seconds and a special teams miracle to get the win. They’ve been strong all season ranking among the top-5 against the pass, in total defense and fewest points allowed.
Over the last six games the Pats allowed an average of 11.8 points winning five of them. The only loss in that span was a 33-14 hiccup to Chicago in Week 7. Take that game out of the equation and the defense is allowing just 7.6 points per game in the five wins with the UNDER at 4-1. As bad as the score was on Sunday the Pats did move the football. Mac Jones threw for 246 yards and Damien Harris ran for 65 yards on eight carries, but Jones was sacked six times and the Pats were just 4 of 15 on third down. Nick Folk also missed a pair of field goals.
Minnesota Vikings
Those who doubted the Vikings likely got pleasure from last week’s outcome. And the Vikings certainly didn’t get any respect from oddsmakers who pegged them as a 1.5-point home dog against the Cowboys despite their glossy 8-1 record. The bottom line is winning games, but from a betting perspective there are other things worth noting. First, the level of competition in those eight wins wasn’t been the best. Sure they beat the Bills with a gift from Josh Allen and the catch of the decade from Justin Jefferson. I think what’s more alarming is that with an 8-2 record the Vikings have a minus-2 point differential. That says a lot about the games they lost, by 17 to the Eagles and 37 to the Cowboys.
Kirk Cousins had the best retort when asked about the margin of defeat saying calmly, “they all count as one. The point differential doesn’t end up becoming a thing that sticks with it, but the loss or the win does.” The Vikings are in a good spot leading the NFC North by four games with a 99.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN. They have time before the end of the season to figure things out but not a lot of time before tangling with one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Patriots vs Vikings Prediction
I can see why the total surfaced at 42 with the Pats playing strong defensively. However, despite both clubs not scoring an offensive touchdown last week I still like the OVER against a relatively small number. Both teams average more than 21 points with big play capability. And like we saw last week special teams and defense can contribute to the number of points.
Prediction: New England Patriots +3 and OVER 42
