Ever since Payton Manning rode off into the sunset after leading the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl win in the 2015 season the club has been looking for a quarterback. The fruitless search led to 11 different players making a start at the position over the past six seasons with one winning campaign and zero playoff appearances. In an effort to finally rectify the problem the Broncos swung one of the biggest trades in NFL history acquiring Russell Wilson. Wilson is borderline great but the pressure is on him and new coach Nathaniel Hackett to make the team relevant.
The addition of Wilson dramatically changed the trajectory of the club. The Broncos went 7-10 last season equaling their most wins in five years, but oddsmakers set their 2022 win total at 10, the same as AFC champion Cincinnati. The Broncos finally have their guy behind center, but there is a lot to overcome with a new QB, new coaching staff and new system. Wilson is definitely worth a few more wins, but enough to get them over 10?
Denver Broncos 2022 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Broncos Over 10 Wins -106
Broncos Under 10 Wins -114
Look at the successful teams around the NFL and the common denominator is strong quarterback play. New England and Tampa Bay benefitted from Tom Brady and the Packers are annually a threat thanks to Aaron Rodgers. Wilson guided Seattle to nine straight winning seasons getting at least 10 victories in eight of those years with eight playoff appearances, two trips to the Super Bowl and a title before the club floundered last season. Not only has Wilson been good he’s been durable starting all but two games during his 10 years in Seattle.
A lack of consistency at QB led to some bad offensive numbers. The Broncos haven’t ranked inside the top-20 in scoring since the 2015 season, though that’s bound to change with Wilson running the show. And the hiring of Hackett is notable since his offensive background goes against what the club had done previously. Former coaches Vic Fangio and Vance Joseph got the gig based on their work as defensive coordinators. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy will benefit as pass catchers with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams solid runners. The offense is balanced, however there is little depth behind the projected starters.
Defensively the team wanted so badly to be great last season allowing an average of less than 19 points to rank third in the NFL. But peel away the layers and there were deficiencies. They ranked 28th on third-down plays, 21st in takeaways and their 36 sacks placed them 18th. A healthy Bradley Chubb should help since he failed to register a sack last season. And those numbers were the product of a defensive-minded head coach.
2022 Denver Broncos Schedule
Week 1: at Seattle Seahawks, Monday, September 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Week 2: vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, September 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 3: vs. San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, September 25, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 4: at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, October 2, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Indianapolis Colts, Thursday, October 6, 8:15 p.m. ET (PRIME)
Week 6: at Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, October 17, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 7: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, October 23, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 8: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, October 30, 9:30 a.m. ET (in London)
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, November 20, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 12: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, November 27, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, December 4, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, December 11, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 15: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, December 18, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 16: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, December 25, 4:30 p.m. ET
Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, January 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, January 8 (TBA)
Looking to maximize Wilson’s skillset the team paired him with Hackett, who spent the last three seasons as OC with Green Bay learning from Rodgers. No doubt the Broncos will be better offensively, but they play in arguably the toughest division in football with Wilson maybe the third-best of the four starters in the AFC West. They get what could be a break against the AFC South but also have the NFC West, which will be tough. While the D limited points they failed to get off the field in critical situations and it’s hard to say if the group has improved. It will be tested against strong offenses both inside and outside the division.
Quick Pick
The Broncos gave up a lot to get Wilson so the move better payoff with nothing less than a playoff spot. They will be better just having the All-Pro behind center, but that doesn’t always translate into wins. And given the schedule is loaded with 2021 playoff teams on the backend I find it hard to see them winning 11 games making the UNDER a solid betting choice.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos UNDER 10 Wins
