It’s not how many you win rather it’s when you win them. The San Francisco 49ers had won six straight over their NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams until having that streak snapped in last season’s NFC Championship, propelling the Rams to the Super Bowl title.
The Niners look to continue their regular season mastery over LA when the teams meet in the Week 4 edition of Monday Night Football. Since the Rams returned to SoCal in 2016, the teams have met twice on MNF in the Bay Area with the Niners winning and covering both by a combined score of 59-10.
The Week 4 Monday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will take place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA at 8:15 p.m. ET on October 3, 2022 and will be televised on ESPN.
Rams vs 49ers Odds
Los Angeles Rams +1.5
San Francisco 49ers -1.5
Over/Under 42
Odds Analysis
The Niners opened as a 1-point favorite in this divisional matchup with the number wagered up a half-point. It seems a tad unusual considering how the teams have looked this season, but the Niners have had success at home and overall against the Rams recently. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings on home turf and they had won six straight before the NFC Championship. SF covered in that loss and has payouts in each of the past five encounters. We’ve also seen movement on the total with the number falling a few points after hitting the board at 44. The teams have played below the closing total in four of the past five encounters.
Los Angeles Rams
It’s been a shaky start for the defending champs with inconsistent play being the norm. The Rams opened with a crushing loss to Buffalo and had to hold on to beat Atlanta in Week 2 conceding a total of 58 points in those games. The defense looked much sharper last week and it was kind of surprising since a majority of the secondary was out. They kept the Cardinals out of the end zone in the 20-12 win and though Kyler Murray threw for 314 yards it took 58 pass attempts to do it. The unit allowed just 70 rushing yards forcing Arizona to be one-dimensional allowing pass rushers to disrupt Murray. They also stopped the Cards on two red zone trips and held them to 33.3 percent on third down conversions.
The Rams are still searching for an offensive outburst and it’s unlikely to come against a stiff Niners squad. One thing that’s affected the offense is turnovers. Matthew Stafford has five interceptions and only two teams have more giveaways than the Rams’ seven. They overcame three turnovers to beat the Falcons, but that’s something that won’t be successful in the long term. The miscues have hindered the point production with the Rams averaging 20.3 points and cashing the UNDER in two of three games.
San Francisco 49ers
There’s a reason why Jimmy Garoppolo lost the starting gig. While he’s won a lot of games Jimmy G also craps out on the big stage and the knock against him is that he can’t win the big one. He tossed a pair of picks and missed some throws in the Super Bowl LIV loss to Kansas City and while he didn’t play poorly in last season’s NFC Championship, the Niners managed just 28 yards and two first downs in the fourth quarter while blowing a 10-point lead. With Lance done it’s up to Jimmy G. to lead the team most pegged as a Super Bowl favorite. He’ll need to eliminate mistakes like stepping out of the end zone for a Denver safety that was the difference in the 11-10 loss to Denver last week.
You can’t complain about the defense, which has been among the league’s best so for. The Niners are tops against the pass allowing less than 149 yards per game and second in total defense. They certainly deserved better last week holding the Broncos to 261 yards, but losing the turnover battle 3-0 was crippling. The D will have to step up again with Garoppolo’s blind side protector Trent Williams sidelined. The Rams will bring pressure in an effort to force turnovers from the Niners’ QB.
Rams vs 49ers Prediction
There are a number of trends backing the UNDER in this game and it looks like the smart play. The Niners have gone below the total in every game this season and six straight dating back to last year. The UNDER is 6-1 in LA’s last seven prime-time games. It’s hard to overlook the Niners’ success against LA during the regular season and they seem to have their number at Levi’s which is why I’m backing the home team minus the points
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -1.5 / UNDER 42
