Since expanding and changing the playoff format for the 2021 season, the first round is now known as Super Wild Card weekend. Six postseason games in three days start Saturday with a pair of games between clubs that met during the regular seasons. A matchup of NFC West clubs gets the festivities started when the scorching hot San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks. The day closes with an AFC tilt between the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida.
The Niners are on a roll that even the backup’s backup couldn’t slow. Brock Purdy took over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 leading the Niners to six straight wins scoring more than 30 points in five of them. Overall the Niners closed the season with 10 straight victories going 8-2 ATS. They swept the season series with Seattle with Purdy tossing a pair of scoring passes in a 21-13 payout in Week 15. The Niners are a 10-point favorite on the NFL betting line. The matchup gets underway from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. at 4:30 p.m. ET with television coverage provided by FOX.
Five straight wins to close the regular season fueled Jacksonville’s run to its first playoff appearance in five years. It was a remarkable turnaround after the club suffered through a five-game losing streak earlier leaving them at 2-6 through the first half. Playing the franchise’s most meaningful game since the 2018 AFC Championship, the Jags edged Tennessee in a winner-take-all Week 18 contest to claim the AFC South crown and No. 4 seed. The Jags rolled to a 38-10 win in LA in Week 3, but the Bolts are a different team with a healthy defense that silenced opponents during a playoff-clinching four-game winning streak. The first playoff meeting between the clubs will air on NBC at 8:15 p.m. ET from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.
Seattle Seahawks ( +10 ) at San Francisco 49ers ( -10 ) O/U 43
There really is no reason why the Niners should lose this game. They swept the regular season series showing off the NFL’s top defense in the process. Couple that with the play of Purdy, and the Niners are moving up the futures market as a sexy Super Bowl pick. It’s one thing to win regular season games backed by the league’s stingiest defense and a plethora of playmakers. The real test for Purdy starts Saturday when the stakes are much higher. The last two months were relatively easy with seven of their wins during the streak by double figures. The addition of Christian McCaffrey bolstered the offense and the D held Seattle to averages of 10 points and 246.5 yards during the regular season sweep.
Seattle got plenty of help to get back into the postseason and with little expected from them look for Pete Carroll to pull out all the stops. They won their last two games to claim the final wild card spot but the Seahawks were spotty during the second half going 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Geno Smith and the offense will need to play at a high level in order to cover and possibly get the upset. Smith had a strong season throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, but he struggled against the Niners throwing for 435 yards total with the teams cashing the UNDER in both.
Our Staff Prediction: Seattle Seahawks +10 and UNDER 43
Los Angeles Chargers ( PK ) at Jacksonville Jaguars ( PK ) O/U 47.5
The Jags got plenty of attention from the betting public after opening as a 1-point home dog. The line has since been wagered to a pick ’em with the teams closely matched in a number of statistical categories. And both squads did what they needed to do down the stretch to get to this point. The Jags won their last five games, including a 20-16 win over the Titans in a winner-take-all finale. A sign that the Jags have turned a corner from the Urban Meyer debacle is that they posted a winning record and won a game they probably should’ve lost. The Jags managed just 19 rushing yards and 222 total yards in the Tennessee game but got a defensive score to turn the tide. They won their last four home games going 3-1 ATS.
Needing wins in the second half to secure a wild card the Chargers leaned on a stingy defense that stymied opponents during a crucial four-game winning streak. The club allowed an average of just 11 points during the run clinching a postseason berth with a 31-10 win over the Rams in Week 17. It was a drastic turnaround for a club that had one of the worst stop units in the NFL for most of the season. And the Bolts allowed 413 total yards in the Week 3 loss to the Jags. Justin Herbert has weapons on offense but could be without Mike Williams after he was injured in the finale. The Chargers has the third-best pass offense during the regular season and averaged 23 points while going 11-5-1 ATS.
Our Staff Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers PK and OVER 47.5
