Back in the NFC Championship for a second straight year, the San Francisco 49ers are looking for a different outcome. In order to achieve that they’ll have to get past the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles on the road. The Niners blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams last year and they’ve dropped their last two NFC title games on the road. The Niners enter as the hottest team in the league with 12 straight victories overall going 10-2 ATS. The Eagles hit the board as a 2.5-point favorite coming off a convincing 38-7 payout win over the Giants in the Divisional Round.
The NFC Championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will take place at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 29, 2023 and will be televised on FOX.
49ers vs Eagles Odds
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 ( +125 )
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 ( -145 )
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
Even with their third starting QB of the season behind center the Niners just keep rolling. This is a different scenario for them, though, playing as an underdog if the line holds. It’s been almost three months since they got points on the line and it happened just twice all season. The Eagles were dominant all season winning eight straight and 13 of 14 to start the year. That allowed them to overcome a mini late season slide and secure home field advantage. The Eagles ended the season 14-3 SU and they opened -2.5 in this one. Laying 8-points last week, the Eagles ended a four-game ATS losing streak in their 38-7 win over New York. The Eagles are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at the Linc this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Will the Niners continue to thrive with Brock Purdy at QB? It seems like that’s been said every week since he took over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 and all he and the Niners have done is win. Purdy played a majority of that Miami game and although he wasn’t the official starter I’m counting it in his numbers. The Niners won that game with Purdy tossing a pair of TDs and they are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in his games while averaging nearly 33 points. Facing a tough Dallas defense last week the Niners struggled. Purdy threw for 214 yards and the Niners totaled 312 yards producing the fewest points in any Purdy start. The OVER is 6-2 in SF’s last eight games.
With a smothering defense and several playmakers on offense Purdy isn’t required to do much. As long as he doesn’t screw things up the Niners have a good chance of winning. They boasted the No. 1 scoring defense and total defense during the season allowing just over 300 yards and 16.3 points. The D came up big last week when the offense labored. The group held Dallas to 282 yards and picked off two Dak Prescott passes. They have two takeaways in each of their two playoff games and lead the NFL during the season with a plus-13 turnover margin. They’ve been plus or even in TO margin in every game of their current winning streak and are plus-19 total during that span.
Philadelphia Eagles
Getting Jalen Hurts back close to being healthy for the matchup with the Giants was huge. The first-round bye proved beneficial in that. The Eagles went through a mini slump late in the season with Hurts injured in a 25-20 win over the Bears in Week 15. He missed the next two games with a shoulder injury and the Eagles dropped both putting their status as the top team in jeopardy. But Hurts returned for the finale, and though he wasn’t his explosive self, there was a vibe around the club. The Eagles beat New York 22-16 in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 seed giving Hurts additional time to heal.
Though admittedly not near 100 percent, Hurts was good enough to thrash the Giants last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. With Hurts throwing for nearly 4,000 yards the Eagles had a balanced attack placing among the top-5 in rushing, total yards and scoring. They were able to cash the OVER in 10 games and they will test the Niners’ stingy group. And don’t overlook their defense, which finished second behind SF in total yards allowed. The Eagles were disruptive last week sacking Daniel Jones five times and holding the Giants to 227 yards.
49ers at Eagles Prediction
If this game is half as good as I think it will be viewers are in for a treat. The two best teams in the NFC with menacing defenses gives value to the UNDER. Both teams also have playmakers on offense with the difference being at QB. Purdy has been brilliant, but I’ll take Hurts in this mega matchup and back the Eagles minus the points.
Our Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 UNDER 46
