The post-Tom Brady era was initially a struggle for the New England Patriots, but things are looking up and the Pats could be back in contention for a division title after winning 10 games and reaching the playoffs in 2021. Fans used to decades of success with Brady and Bill Belichick underwent a reality check in 2020. However, the drafting of a franchise quarterback and the Patriot way has New England as a threat to Buffalo in the AFC East.
The Pats exceeded their win total last season but oddsmakers expect a decline with their 2022 total set at 8.5, one win lower than what they had before last season. New England was heavily involved in the free agent market prior to 2021 in its attempt to reclaim a winning season and it worked. Throughout the current offseason they’ve been relatively silent relying instead on the development and retention of its current roster. That could be a bad move since teams in the conference have bolstered their lineups.
New England Patriots 2022 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Patriots Over 8.5 Wins +100
Patriots Under 8.5 Wins -120
The development of Mac Jones certainly helped the offense allowing the team to move away from the failed Cam Newton experiment. In his first season Jones started every game throwing for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns helping the offense improve from one of the worst in 2021 to sixth in scoring last year. And one of the biggest offseason moves to date was adding receiver Devante Parker to the mix giving Jones a go-to threat in a group that has plenty of potential.
With weapons in the passing game we could see Belichick move away from the run-heavy approach. Only three AFC teams ran the ball more than New England last season and the return of James White will only bolster the group that includes Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who each ran for more than 600 yards. The strategy was employed to take pressure off Jones, but when it worked the team stuck with it. Jones could easily take the next step giving a balanced attack more pop in the passing game.
Even when Brady was marching up and down the field the Pats always did the job defensively. They had the second-best scoring defense last season ranking among the top-10 for a 10th consecutive season. They also brought former assistant Matt Patricia back after his failed head coaching assignment. J.C. Jackson had eight of the teams AFC-best 23 interceptions last year, but he signed with the Chargers. The unit also lost Kyle Van Noy and could be without Dont’a Hightower. They always seem to come up with gems on defense, though, and they’ll have to do it again to compete in a tougher division.
2022 New England Patriots Schedule
Week 1: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, September 11, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, September 18, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, October 2, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday, October 9, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, October 16, 1 p.m. ET
Week 7: vs. Chicago Bears, Monday, October 24, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 8: at New York Jets, Sunday, October 30, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, November 6, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, November 20, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: at Minnesota Vikings, Thursday, November 24, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 13: vs. Buffalo Bills, Thursday, December 1, 8:15 p.m. ET (PRIME)
Week 14: at Arizona Cardinals, Monday, December 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, December 18, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 16: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: vs. Miami Dolphins, Sunday, January 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, January 8 (TBA)
The Pats made a run at the AFC East title last year beating Buffalo during the season and finishing a game back in the standings. The gap was much wider, though, as evidenced by New England’s 47-17 loss in the wild card round allowing 308 passing yards and 482 total yards. It was also a bleak finish to the year with the Pats’ only win in their final four regular season games over Jacksonville. Buffalo is favored to win the division while Miami may have improved more than any team during the offseason. The addition of three first round draft picks should make the Jets stronger. The division is stronger and playing the AFC and NFC North won’t be easy.
Quick Pick
The offense should be fine as long as Jones continues to perform at a high level. I also expect to see a few wrinkles on that side of the ball now that Belichick has a history with his QB. The Bills are the benchmark in the division and the conference and we saw New England give up a lot of points to them in the second regular season game and the wild card matchup and I expect the staff to address that. Defense should again be a strength with little regression. Given their talent I see the Pats as a better than .500 team putting them OVER the projected total.
Prediction: New England Patriots OVER 8.5 Wins
