If anybody had the teams competing in the Final Four in their bracket they must have a crystal ball. Someone might have gotten lucky with a pick or two, but the field is definitely not what most expected when the NCAA Tournament started a few weeks back. First, there is no No. 1 seed in the Final Four for the first time since 2011. There isn’t a No. 2 or No. 3 seed either. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, the top three seeds won the national championship close to 90 percent of the time. So, yeah, what we’re witnessing is indeed different.
The first championship game participant will be decided between the Florida Atlantic Owls and San Diego State Aztecs. At No. 9 the Owls are two wins away from becoming the lowest seed to win the tournament relying on a heavy dose of three-point shooting to take down Tennessee and Kansas State last weekend. Being the favorite to win it all heading into the Final Four might be the kiss of death for the Connecticut Huskies, who must beat Miami on Saturday in order to fulfill oddsmakers belief in them. UConn is the highest remaining seed and arguably the best team still standing. The Huskies are also the only team among the four to have previously played in a Final Four winning four national championships.
The Final Four takes place on Saturday, April 1, 2023 from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The first game is set to tipoff at 6:09 p.m. ET with the second game scheduled for 8:49 p.m. ET. Both games will air line on CBS.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs ( -2, O/U 131.5)
Everybody loves an underdog and if the Aztecs were playing almost any other team they’d be a fan favorite. Instead the Owls have captured the attention of everyone with their epic run and they are two wins away from surpassing the 1985 Villanova Wildcats as the lowest-seeded team to win a national championship. Some questioned FAU’s schedule since prior to the NCAA Tournament they hadn’t played a power conference team since November. You don’t win 35 games by accident, though, and the Owls proved their worth upsetting Tennessee and KSU last weekend. They’re also the best in what’s been a strong conference winning the C-USA regular season and tournament titles.
FAU is among the top 30 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency making them able to handle anything an opponent throws at them. They’ve won shootouts and rockfights with a balanced roster. The main offensive weapon is three-point shooting with nearly 45 percent of their field goals coming from behind the arc. And that plays right into the strength of SDSU’s defense. The Aztecs allow opponents to connect on just 27.9 percent of their triples. Last week they held Alabama and Creighton to a combined 5 of 44 on threes. Matt Bradley was the only player to average double figures during the regular season but they’ve had a different leading scorer in all four Tournament games with Darrion Trammell erupting for 21 against Bama and Lamont Butler going for 18 against Creighton. FAU feels like a team of destiny, but the Aztecs play a style that will neutralize their athleticism sending SDSU to the title game.
Final Four Pick: San Diego State -2 / UNDER 131.5
Miami Hurricanes vs. UConn Huskies ( -5.5, O/U 149 )
You could say the Huskies had the easiest path to the Final Four with their highest seeded opponent No. 5 St. Mary’s in the second round. They blasted the Gaels, 70-55, in what was the closest of their four Tournament games. UConn has been so dominant in the Tournament they held the nation’s highest scoring team to 54 points while pounding Gonzaga by 28 points. A lull in the middle of the season may have forced many to abandon UConn. After starting the season with 14 straight wins they proceeded to drop six of their next eight games. The found their mojo at the right time, though, going 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS over their last 15 contests. They have a formidable duo in Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo, who’ve combined to average nearly 38 points in the Tournament.
Advancing through the Midwest Region with wins over No. 1 seed Houston, No. 2 seed Texas and No. 4 seed Indiana, the Canes are battle tested and won’t be fazed by UConn’s dominance. Miami also won the ACC regular season title and have seemingly been overlooked. I’m sure they have UConn’s attention and that could be a bad thing. The Canes have an explosive offense tallying at least 85 points in each of their last three games. However, they aren’t as good on the other side of the floor and will be exploited by UConn’s balanced attack.
Final Four Pick: UConn -5.5 / OVER 149
