Following an opening day win over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the New Orleans Saints looked primed for the playoffs. By contrast not much was expected from the Los Angeles Chargers this season. LA is 1-3 but could be 3-1 if not for blowing large leads against the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Such NFL betting disasters often define a team and a season. Now LA faces the Saints on Monday Night Football. Resurgent New Orleans won at the Detroit Lions but still faces doubts about their championship prospects.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints
When: Monday, October 12, 2020, 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
NFL Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 at New Orleans Saints -7.5, over under 52
Chargers vs Saints Odds Analysis
Following their win at Detroit last Sunday, gamblers have regained confidence in the Saints. Consequently, the masses have no confidence in the Chargers. Those that do won’t like the defensive numbers and those aforementioned blown leads.
Chargers Value Exceeds Record
The Los Angeles Chargers are 1-3 straight up but 3-1 against the spread with three unders. Overall, the Chargers rank 27th for scoring offense and 11th for points allowed. Last week the Chargers lost at Tampa Bay 38-31 as 7.5-point dogs as over the total of 42.5 paid as well. At Tampa Bay, LA seemed to have a season changing win and cash in hand as they led the Bucs 24-7 in the second quarter. However, Tom Brady and the Bucs rallied to win the game. Brady lit the Chargers defense up for 369 yards passing. Meanwhile Los Angeles was only able to muster 46 rushing yards on 23 carries.
Namely rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has been impressive since taking over. Herbert was thrust into action after Tyrod Taylor suffered a lung puncture during medical treatments. At Tampa Bay last week Herbert was a betting on NFL asset with 20 of 25 good for 290 yards passing and three touchdowns. Although unfair, it’s unlikely that Taylor gets his starting job back. Through three games Herbert is putting up Rookie of the Year production. Herbert has a 102.2 rating with 326 yards per game, a 72% completion rate, an average of 8.7 yards per pass with five touchdown passes.
Saints Go Marching Back into Race
The New Orleans Saints are 2-2 straight up and against the spread with all four games going over the total. Overall NFL rankings have the Saints sixth for scoring offense and 25th for points allowed. Last week New Orleans won at Detroit 35-29 as 3-point chalks with over the total of 51.5 being a winning ticket as well. Drew Brees was instrumental in the pro football betting cover. To illustrate Brees has a 108.2 rating and is averaging 7.8 yards per pass. Meanwhile Alvin Kamara leads the Saints in rushing and receiving.
Chargers vs Saints Against the Spread
Overall, the Saints have paid in 13 of their last 19 games and have cleared the total in six of their last seven. At home the Saints have covered two of their last seven as over the total has hit in four of their last six home tilts.
Los Angeles has covered only three of their last 11 matchups with four of their last six games going under the total. The Chargers have paid in just two of their last six road contests as five of their last six away games cleared the total.
In this head to head series the Saints have gotten the cash in four of their last five with Los Angeles with over the total hitting in five straight between New Orleans and the Chargers.
Chargers vs Saints Prediction
Prediction: New Orleans Saints -7.5
As was previously noted the Saints control the payout window in this series. In recent games the Saints have shown much better wagering value than the Chargers. Furthermore, the Chargers defense is hard to recommend, especially against Drew Brees and the Saints. New Orleans may not be as explosive as the past but their offense is still better than most.
