In a division without a team above .500, the Indianapolis Colts have been all but eliminated from contending for the crown. They have a chance but that requires them to win their remaining three games while getting all kinds of help. And winning games is something they haven’t done much of. Hell, they can’t even win a game when holding a 33-point halftime lead. The Colts look to put that debacle behind them and stop a four-game losing streak when they host the Los Angeles Chargers in the Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup.
The Week 16 Monday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN at 8:15 p.m. ET on December 26, 2022 and will be televised on ESPN.
Chargers Colts Predictions Odds
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 ( -220 )
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 ( +184 )
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
Two straight wins and three victories in their last four games moved the Chargers into a playoff spot. But clinching isn’t going to be easy with several teams on their tail. With Indy reeling from a historic loss last week the Bolts need to come out charging. They’ve gotten inspired play from their defense the last two weeks holding both opponents to 17 points or less. It’s a good thing because the offense has struggled. A last second field goal got the Bolts a 17-14 win over Tennessee last week pushing the 3-point line. Though they are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four, the Bolts have been a solid bet going 8-5-1 ATS with five payouts in seven road games. Indy squandered a 33-0 halftime lead losing 39-36 to Minnesota a week after giving up 33 fourth quarter points in a 54-19 loss to Dallas. The setbacks get uglier every week. The Colts have dropped four straight and seven of their last eight going 3-5 ATS in that span while cashing the OVER in each of their last three contests.
Los Angeles Chargers
The season numbers don’t look good but the defense has been a major contributor in LA’s last two victories. The group yields nearly 355 yards a game for the season but held the Titans to just 284 last week. They were even better in Week 14 holding Miami’s high powered attack to 219 yards. Not allowing extended drives was a key as the Bolts held those two clubs to a combined 6 of 22 on third downs. There is still work to be done with the unit allowing an average of 24.3 points, but recent results show the club is trending in the right direction. And there’s a chance Derwin James returns after the All-Pro safety missed the previous two games.
A big concern on offense has been the running game, which averages just 83.7 yards and is only slightly better than Tampa Bay. That puts a lot of pressure on Justin Herbert, but he’s delivered. Herbert has attempted at least 42 passes in each of the last four games and three times this year he’s thrown more than 50 passes. He’s second in the NFL in pass attempts, completions and yards with only nine interceptions. Getting top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in the lineup has helped, now all the Bolts have to do is score more. Herbert failed to throw a TD pass last week and has just two in the last three games with the Bolts cashing the UNDER in all.
Indianapolis Colts
There is no quarterback problem with the Chargers, however, the same can’t be said about Indy. The Matt Ryan experiment failed miserably and for the second time this season he’s getting benched. Rookie Sam Ehlinger took over in Week 8 and wasn’t the answer. The team scored a total of 19 points in losses to Washington and New England. When Jeff Saturday took over Ryan was reinstated leading the Colts to a 25-20 win at Las Vegas, the only victory in the last eight games. After the historic collapse in Minnesota, Saturday decided to make another change turning to former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.
“Just didn’t feel like we made enough plays offensively. We haven’t converted in the red zone, and ultimately you’ve gotta make plays in the NFL and we’re not making nearly enough explosive plays,” Saturday said about the switch. There are issues that extend far beyond quarterback play, but when the offense fails who gets the blame? They are next to last in red zone percentage and 27th in third down conversions. Ryan has a NFL-high 13 interceptions and their 27 turnovers are easily the most.
Chargers vs Colts Prediction
With coaching changes and a revolving door at QB the Colts are a mess. But you have to believe they are anxious to get back on the field after blowing the biggest lead in NFL history. I don’t think that’s enough, though. Even if the Chargers fall behind they should feel confident about a comeback. The Colts were outscored 55-0 in the fourth quarter of their last two games.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 and OVER 45.5
