The Monday Night Football contest between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals is the only game on the Week 17 schedule that features two teams with a winning record. More than half the teams in the NFL have more losses than these clubs have combined. With a record between them of 23-7 they are battling with Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC and the first round playoff bye that comes with it. Cincy overcame its early season swoon posting seven straight wins and covers, but the Bengals are a game behind Buffalo in the AFC standings.
The Week 17 Monday Night Football contest between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will take place at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH at 8:30 p.m. ET on January 2, 2023 and will be televised on ABC and ESPN.
Bills vs Bengals Odds
Buffalo Bills -1 ( -118 )
Cincinnati Bengals +1 ( -102 )
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
There’s a lot riding on this matchup mainly the top seed in the AFC. With wins in their final two games the Bills are guaranteed the first round bye thanks to a win over the Chiefs earlier in the year. Cincy also beat KC and is very much in the hunt. The Bills opened as a 2.5-point favorite but that number was bet down to a single point making this one essentially a tossup. No team is hotter than the Bengals both on the field and at the betting window. Cincy has seven consecutive wins and payouts and is 9-1 SU and ATS in its last 10. They are the most profitable team in the NFL with an 80 percent cover rate. The Bills haven’t been bad extending their winning streak to six games with a 35-13 cover win at Chicago last week for their first payout in three games. They are 3-6 ATS over their last nine games and 7-7-1 ATS overall. The total spiked a point to 49.
Buffalo Bills
After having their season end in Kansas City the last two years I think the Bills are eyeing that first round bye and homefield advantage that’s theirs with wins in the last two games. A sign of how good the Bills are is that their six-game winning streak gets little mention. They bounced back from that chaotic setback to the Vikings and haven’t lost since. There were some close calls during the streak against Detroit, the Jets and Miami, but the Bills did enough to get the win. They haven’t been as dominant as the previous two seasons, but the bar was set rather high. Still, the Bills boast the fourth-highest scoring team while allowing the second fewest points.
Josh Allen is a MVP candidate throwing for over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns as the Bills are one of only two teams averaging over 400 yards per game. Allen was just 15 of 26 for 172 yards in the Chicago game, the second time in three games he failed to pass for 200 yards. Instead the Bills used the eighth ranked ground game to get the job done at frigid Soldier Field. Devin Singletary ran for 106 yards and James Cook added 99 with the Bills averaging 8.2 yards per carry. They wore down Chicago in the second half outscoring the Bears 29-3 to record their highest point total since Week 5 in the 35-13 victory.
Cincinnati Bengals
It took a while to get going, but once they did the Bengals have been unstoppable. Outside of a 21-point win over Carolina to start their current winning streak, they haven’t blown opponents away winning the last six games by an average of seven points. They’ve been able to win in different ways not just relying on Joe Burrow and an explosive offense. Two weeks ago they rallied from a 17-0 deficit to knock off Tampa Bay 34-23. They also crossed the 30-point threshold in three games during the run. It helps to be lucky, too. Last week they nearly blew a 22-point lead only to have New England fumble the ball away in a goal-to-go situation in the final minutes escaping with a 22-18 win as a 3-point road favorite.
Burrow tossed his hat into the MVP discussion with his play during the winning streak tossing 17 touchdown passes. He has at least one scoring pass in every game and has multiple TD passes on 11 occasions, including four in a row. Burrow was 40 of 52 for 375 yards and three TDs against the Pats, but he tossed two picks and has been intercepted four times in the last three games. Despite all the offensive accolades the Bengals cashed the UNDER in four of their last five games.
Bills vs Bengals Prediction
If anything this should be an enjoyable game; two of the best young QBs in the NFL fighting for the top seed in the AFC with only two games remaining. I do like Buffalo’s defense, which doesn’t get the notoriety that Allen and the guys on the other side get. The Bills allow the second fewest points and are among the top-10 in total defense. Earning the top-seed comes with advantages and it’s there for Buffalo to take. I expect they’ll do just that.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -1 and UNDER 49
