If the Mississippi State Bulldogs needed any more encouragement in their top-25 SEC battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday they got it last week. Bama lost for the first time falling 52-49 to Tennessee showing plenty of cracks in what’s usually been a stout defense. MSU also saw the Vols end a 15-game losing streak to the Tide and the Bulldogs would like nothing better than to stop their own 14-game skid against Nick Saban’s crew.
The big difference is that this game is home for Bama, which has won 17 straight at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is a 21.5-point favorite on the college football betting line to continue its home dominance.
The Week 8 college football game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 22, 2022 and will be televised on ESPN.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Odds
Mississippi State Bulldogs +21.5
Alabama Crimson Tide -21.5
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers expect the Tide to bounce back positioning them as a 21.5-point favorite on the opening line. There’s been very little movement with the betting public apparently taking a wait and see approach. We’ve seen two shaky games in a row from the Tide, who barely got by Texas AM, 24-20, in Week 6 as a 24-point favorite. They didn’t have Bryce Young for that game or things could’ve turned out differently. After two straight cover losses Bama is now 4-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are also coming off a loss, 27-17, at Kentucky that halted a three-game winning streak. During that run the Bulldogs scored at least 40 points cashing the OVER in all three. Overall MSU is 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
With Young back in the Alabama lineup the Bulldogs will have to be more efficient and score more points than they did last week. It’s apparent what makes them work and its Will Rogers and the offense. In both losses the Bulldogs failed to score more than 17 points while averaging 43 points in their five wins. And those two setbacks came on the road in Baton Rouge and Lexington with MSU sitting at 1-2 SU and ATS in road games heading into this matchup. And the Dogs have the dark cloud of that long losing streak hanging over their heads. Most of those 14 defeats haven’t been close with the Dogs getting outscored 152-16 while going 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
Rogers has been exceptional this season completing 71 percent of his passes for 2,313 yards and 23 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He’ll need to bounce back after an off night against Kentucky completing 25 of 37 for 203 yards with a TD and a pick. A balanced attack can keep Bama’s defense on its heels like we saw last week. Tennessee amassed 567 total yards with 385 in the air and 182 on the ground. The Bulldogs average only 94.6 rushing yards and they are doomed if they become one-dimensional on offense.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Last week’s loss wasn’t the fault of Young or the offense. In fact having the Heisman winner behind center sparked the club. The problem was the inability of the defense to stop Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s weapons. After missing the previous game with a shoulder injury, Young showed no effects completing 35 of 52 passes for 455 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In the game he missed – a 24-20 win over Texas AM – the Tide produced its second-lowest point total in their last 24 home games.
While they struggled to beat Texas AM a few weeks ago, Alabama extended its home winning streak to 17 games while going 13-4 ATS. They’ve had all kinds of success against MSU as well winning seven straight in Tuscaloosa allowing more than 10 points in only one of those games and earning payouts in six. Bama hasn’t conceded a touchdown to MSU on its home turf since 2014 and has pitched two straight shutouts while covering the last five times the spread was more than 20 points.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction
Alabama doesn’t take kindly to losing so I almost feel sorry for the Bulldogs. The Tide’s last regular season defeat prior to last week was to Texas AM last season. They responded with a 49-9 home win over MSU the following week covering the 17.5-point spread. The teams can put up points, but if history tells us anything it’s that the score will fall below the total. The UNDER is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings and I expect Bama will come out with a chip on their shoulder, though the Bulldogs are scrappy.
Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +21.5 and UNDER 61
