Only four unbeaten teams remain in the FBS and two of them are in the same conference and division. In what amounts to the de facto Big Ten championship game the 11-0 Michigan Wolverines visit the 11-0 Ohio State Buckeyes with a CFP berth on the line. Given the teams involved and what’s at stake this is easily the game of the year and could be the game of the last few years. It outdoes last year’s game since Michigan actually had one loss before ending OSU dreams of a perfect season. The Buckeyes are a 7.5-point favorite on the college football betting line to return the favor.
The Week 13 college football game between the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes will take place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 26, 2022 and will be televised on FOX.
Michigan vs Ohio State Odds
Michigan Wolverines +7.5
Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
For the first time this season the Wolverines are catching points on the betting line. They played as the favorite in all 11 games going 6-4-1 ATS. They had three payouts and a push in their previous four games before failing to cover the 17-point line and barely getting by Illinois last week. UM is 2-1 ATS in its three road games but the Wolverines haven’t won in Columbus since the 2000 season going 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS since then. This will be the first meeting between the teams at OSU since the 2018 season. COVID messed with schedules in 2020 eliminating the game completely. The Buckeyes had a nice run during the middle of the season going 4-0-1 ATS between Weeks 3 and 8. They failed to cover the 25-point spread in their 43-30 win at Maryland last week going 1-3 ATS in their last four.
Michigan Wolverines
With only three road games through the first 11 the Wolverines will be facing not only a difficult opponent but a vicious crowd as well. And they might be doing it without leading rusher Blake Corum, who sustained a leg injury against Illinois last week. Corum has amassed the third most rushing yards in the FBS with 1,457 with 18 touchdowns, the second highest total. He was hurt in the first half and played a snap in the second half before shutting it down. He put in a days work, though going for 108 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
Michigan uses the nation’s fourth-best ground game to wear opponents down with Corum leading the way for a team that averages 244 rushing yards. In last year’s win over OSU Corum tallied 89 of the Wolverines’ nearly 300 rushing yards as they averaged more than seven yards a pop. The key to beating UM is stopping the ground game. With Corum out for nearly the entire second half the Wolverines managed four field goals and Corum still accounted for nearly 40 percent of the team’s total yards. A lot of this section is about the offense, but the defense deserves some recognition. They’ve allowed more than 17 points in a game just once and boast the top total defense in the country while allowing only 11.7 points per game cashing the UNDER eight times.
Ohio State Buckeyes
I’ve said this before because it’s true; revenge is a great motivator. After having so much success against Michigan winning eight in a row and 15 of 16 before last year’s matchup most thought it would always be OSU. Maybe C.J. Stroud and Co. were a little overconfident heading into that matchup because the Buckeyes got their asses handed to them. I got a sense that the cockiness isn’t there and the OSU is all business. They were caught looking ahead to this contest barely getting by Maryland in a game that was closer than the final score. While some might see that as a negative, I don’t. To me it’s a sign that the Buckeyes are getting prepared.
It’s safe to say the defense is prepared after getting shredded for nearly 300 yards on the ground last year. In fact the stop group was the biggest concern for a few seasons though it seems solved this time around. They aren’t ranked as highly in the key stat categories, but you could argue the level of competition has something to do with that. OSU is ninth nationally in yards allowed, 10th in points per game allowed and 11th against the pass. The Buckeyes are more balanced offensively and if they slow down the run they should win this game.
Michigan vs Ohio State Prediction
We didn’t see last year’s game turning out the way it did and as you know anything goes in a rivalry game as intense as this one. We’ve seen the teams combine for a lot of points in the last several meetings with eight straight going over the total and I expect more of the same. I want to back Michigan but with OSU at home looking for payback the spread seems much smaller.
Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5 and OVER 57
