They won a national championship last season, but the Georgia Bulldogs failed to win the SEC crown. In fact the Dogs failed to win a league title in their previous three opportunities falling once in that stretch to the LSU Tigers in 2019 when Joe Burrow led LSU to an undefeated national championship. Making their fifth appearance in the SEC title game in the last six seasons, the Bulldogs will assure themselves of the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff with a win and will likely compete for another national title even if they lose. With three losses the Tigers are out of the running for the playoff and will be a loose group catching 17-points on the college football betting line.
The SEC title game between the LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 3, 2022 and will be televised on CBS.
LSU vs Georgia Odds
LSU Tigers +17 ( +575 )
Georgia Bulldogs -17 ( -824 )
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
Last week’s disappointing 38-23 loss to Texas AM as a 10-point favorite likely cost the Tigers some points on the betting line giving Georgia backers more confidence. The Bulldogs hit the board as a 16-point favorite with the number quickly wagered up to -17. Georgia hasn’t lost a game since dropping this contest last year to Alabama going 14-0 SU and 7-7 ATS since. They played against a spread of more than 20 points in 10 of 12 games this season earning payouts in both contests that closed below that number. The Dogs are 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their previous three trips to the SEC title game with one of those against the Tigers in 2019. I’m not sure what happened to LSU last week, but they entered that game as the West champ with a trip to Atlanta already secured. And with two losses going in they had a slim chance of getting a CFP berth. The setback ended a five-game winning streak dropping LSU to 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.
LSU Tigers
It was a complete team failure against A&M with the offense sputtering and the defense unable to stop an Aggies offense that struggled to score most of the season. Again, there wasn’t much to play for and the underachieving Aggies showed some fight. Now if the Tigers can’t get up for this game there’s something wrong. The offense is averaging 433.4 yards and 32.5 points. The team relies heavily on Jayden Daniels and there is some concern after he was hobbled in last week’s game and seen wearing a walking boot afterwards.
This could be a significant development if Daniels’ mobility is hindered. He did everything throwing for 2,566 yards with 15 TDs and only two interceptions while leading the club with 824 rushing yards and an additional 11 scores. His rushing yards were nearly double that of Josh Williams, who despite missing the last two games, totaled 481 yards and six TDs. LSU reached the conference title game for the first time since their national champion season thanks to a dramatic OT win over Alabama in Week 10. As a 13.5-point home dog the Tigers got a TD run and 2-point conversion pass from Daniels in OT for the 32-31 decision.
Georgia Bulldogs
There are a lot of similarities between this version of the Dogs and last year’s. If the season-ending result is the same there won’t be any complaints from the folks in Athens. Entering the 2021 conference championship unbeaten behind the stingiest defense in the country, the Dogs were a 6-point favorite to beat Bama. Georgia enters this matchup undefeated with the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense and is favored by a wider margin. The Dogs need to avoid the slow starts that plagued them in the last two games, though they had enough to overcome their opponent.
The thing that strikes me about Georgia is their incredible balance. It’s hard to focus on one area since they are so good at everything. They allow just 11.3 points per game and haven’t yielded more than 20 in any of the previous seven contests. They’ve been so good offensively that they cashed the OVER in four of those seven games. Stetson Bennett has thrown for 3,146 yards with 16 TDs while Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards fuel a ground game that averages more than 203 yards by each rushing for more than 600 yards to rank the Dogs among the top-12 nationally in rushing and scoring.
LSU vs Georgia Prediction
With LSU playing its best football against the stiffest competition I see this game being closer than the spread. The Tigers have a better chance of pulling the upset if Daniels plays and performs like he did for a majority of the season. It’ll still take everything for the Tigers to do that and they just don’t have the horses up and down the roster. Georgia will win the game but the Tigers will keep the score inside the spread.
Prediction: LSU Tigers +17 and OVER 51
