The new expanded season kicks off in Mexico at El Camaleon Golf Course at Mayakoba for the aptly titled LIV Golf Mayakoba tournament. The league added several new players during the offseason who are looking to rake in the big money, but it still keeps the 48 player field with no-cut intact. Dustin Johnson, last season’s big winner adding around $35 million to his net worth, returns as the co-betting favorite along with Joaquin Niemann. DJ was one of seven players to win an individual tournament and also took home the team and individual points title. There could be cause for concern, though, since he was unable to compete in Saudi Arabia earlier this month due to a back injury.
Last season we saw seven different winners in is many tournaments that crowned an individual champion and all of them are ready to peg it up. And with El Camaleon serving as host of a PGA Tour event, most players in the field are familiar with the layout. In fact Pat Perez won here in 2016 and Carlos Ortiz had a pair of runner-up finishes. The PGA is so obsessed with LIV Golf that it abandoned El Camaleon following the 2022 Mayakoba Classic. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
LIV Golf Mayakoba Odds
Dustin Johnson +916
Joaquin Niemann +916
Abraham Ancer +1027
Cameron Smith +1117
Talor Gooch +1955
Paul Casey +2005
Brendan Steele +2005
Sergio Garcia +2055
Mito Pereira +2156
Thomas Pieters +2457
Patrick Reed +2558
Louis Oosthuizen +2862
Sebastian Munoz +2862
Anirban Lahiri +2962
Matthew Wolff +3061
Danny Lee +3070
Carlos Ortiz +3262
Jason Kokrak +3262
Charles Howell III +3264
Brooks Koepka +3565
Harold Varner III +3568
Branden Grace +3568
Henrik Stenson +3850
Ian Poulter +4250
Cameron Tringale +4250
Dean Burmester +4450
Pat Perez +4550
Bryson Dechambeau +4650
Kevin Na +5250
Richard Bland +5550
Bernd Wiesberger +6050
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra +6050
Odds Analysis
Johnson is so good that even an injury that prevented him from playing a few weeks ago isn’t enough to knock him from the top of the odds board. And that’s a spot he’s quite familiar with being stationed among the top two in every event last season. He delivered a win in Boston and placed among the top-8 in five other events. No one enjoyed the first season of LIV Golf more than DJ, but is that enough to back him for the outright title? The back ailment has to be a concern and how much more money does he really need? He’ll say it’s the competition that keeps him motivated and that’s enough to at least consider him.
We saw several mid-tier players on the odds board win last season and two major dogs emerged victorious. Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra was in the 100/1 range when he won in Thailand and Henrik Stenson was going off at 60/1 at Bedminster, so I guess anything can happen. Of course no one expected the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team to beat the Russians either.
There’s a definite three-tier gap in the odds, which is similar to what we saw last season. The gap is narrowing, though, as more established players join the ranks. Newcomers Brendan Steele, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters and Sebastian Munoz all have shorter than 30/1 odds while Danny Lee and Dean Burmester are shorter than 45/1. Mid-tier players had some success last season taking advantage of the 54-hole format.
The Field
It’s hard not to back a few natives who play solid golf in Mexico. Abraham Ancer is coming off a win in Saudi Arabia a few weeks ago, the same Asian Tour event DJ missed, carding a 19-under to win by two swings. Several LIV players participated in the event with Paul Casey, Mito Pereira and Marc Leishman finishing among the top-10. Ancer, Mexico’s top ranked player, struggled by his standards last season with an eighth-place finish in Boston his best in six starts.
I really believe Ortiz is ready for a breakout. He’s performed well at El Camaleon with two runners-up and a T8 in his last three starts while placing among the top-10 in half of his eight career starts. He slumped a bit last season after starting with a pair of top-5s in his first two starts. His game obviously plays well here and Ortiz is looking to regain the form that made him a player to watch on the PGA side before making the move.
The familiar faces at the top of the odds board will get plenty of play. However one longshot to consider is Lopez-Chacarra, who stunned everyone with his win in Bangkok last year. A top-ranked amateur before joining LIV, many had Chacarra pegged as a future PGA Tour member. Outside his dominant showing in Thailand the Spaniard had little success finishing 24th or worse in every other start. But it only takes one and with a pro season of experience there certainly are more wins in his future.
LIV Golf Mayakoba Prediction
It’s hard to stray too far from the favorites considering the top five are among the best players in the world. I’m going to fade DJ since this is his first go around at El Camaleon and back injuries are tricky. It paid to look down the odds board in a few events last year and Ortiz just keeps coming to mind. His success on this course and a good price make him standout.
