The Democratic National Convention is underway and there is plenty to discuss in the world of politics.
The Republicans held their convention recently and suffered a litany of problems and the Democrats’ convention is off to a rocky start as well. What’s happening and how will it affect the presidential race? Keep reading and find out the latest Election 2016 predictions.
US Election 2016 Odds: Winning Party
REPUBLICANS +205
DEMOCRATS -268
ANY OTHER PARTY +7000
US Election 2016 Odds: President
HILLARY CLINTON -253
DONALD TRUMP +200
(Odds from July 25, 2016, courtesy of BookMaker.eu)
RNC Plagued With Problems
The Republican National Convention had a ton of issues that most nominating conventions don’t suffer from. The Republicans suffered humiliation after humiliation during the convention. First, it was a rules proposal that was the last gasp of the Never Trump movement to keep Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. This proposal died after some pandemonium but foreshadowed the craziness to come.
Later that night, Melania Trump closed out the first night of festivities with a powerful speech that was afterwards found to be partially plagiarized. She quoted, almost exactly, a line used by Michelle Obama while speaking about her husband during the 2008 Democratic National Convention, and although a speechwriter later took the blame for the blunder, the damage was done.
Ted Cruz Refused to Explicitly Endorse Trump
This happened during the third night of the convention. Cruz gave a stirring speech and went well over his allotted time, but when he asked for voters to vote their consciences, the crowd knew what that was code for and began to boo him lustily.
Donald Trump at first brushed it off, but after the convention was over once again brought up the myth that Ted Cruz’s father had breakfast with Lee Harvey Oswald and showed that he is still the same Trump that will levy baseless accusations no matter how many times they’ve been refuted.
Trump Leads the Polls
Despite all this, Donald Trump’s closing speech at the RNC, received resounding applause and although it was based more in sweeping generalities than specifics, it resonated with the Republican base.
Trump ended up receiving a rather large convention bounce and as of Monday, the Donald Trump odds come out ahead of Hillary Clinton odds in three different polls, after months of Trump trailing. In polls taken immediately following the RNC, Trump had a one-point lead according to CBS, a three point lead according to CNN, and a four point lead according to Morning Consult.
DNC Off to a Bad Start
The Democratic National Convention is set to kick off on Monday afternoon, but there have already been bombshells that have hurt the Democrats. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chair of the DNC, announced that she was stepping down after e-mails were leaked showing that the DNC worked to help Hillary Clinton and undermine Bernie Sanders because it considered her campaign more electorally viable.
Monday morning, she was roundly booed when she addressed the Florida delegation present at the convention, and decided she will not speak at this point.
Democratic Support for Hillary Is Growing
Unlike Trump, whose speakers included many political outsiders, Clinton will have many Democratic Party heavyweights in her corner singing her praises throughout the convention.
On Monday night, Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders will all address the delegates and Sanders is expected to give Clinton a strong show of support while vehemently denouncing Trump’s attempt to swing his supporters into his corner.
Tuesday will feature Bill Clinton speaking as well as mothers of victims of violence throughout the country. Wednesday will feature a powerhouse line-up with Michael Bloomberg, Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama all expected to step up to the podium and endorse Clinton.
Finally, Thursday, Clinton will accept the Democratic Party nomination and is expected to give a rousing speech that outlines specific policies and platforms.
Trumps Leads Polls Now, But It’s a Long Way to November
While Trump is leading in the polls now, the main reason for that is his convention bounce and his numbers will drop after the DNC is over. Even if Clinton doesn’t receive as big of a boost as Trump did, she should still overtake him in polls and should still be a favorite to become the POTUS in the presidential election odds.
Trump’s main problem is that he is losing the demographic battle and many swing states have minorities that will overwhelmingly support the Democrats. Wait to see if the odds drop as a result of the polls, but if not, bet on Clinton to become the next POTUS before the DNC is over.
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