The window is still open for the Buffalo Bills. They finally got past the New England Patriots to win the AFC East in 2020 then won the division again last season posting double-digit victories for a third straight season. They showed their franchise record tying 13 wins were no fluke backing that up with 11 wins in 2021 while averaging just over 11 wins the last three seasons.
Motivation shouldn’t be an issue with the club falling short of the Super Bowl with playoff losses to Kansas City in each of the last two seasons. And it’s safe to say Josh Allen has been worth the high draft pick the Bills used on him. Allen has developed into one of the best signal callers in the game but won’t be considered one of the best until or unless he gets to a Super Bowl. The Bills have an explosive offense that ranked among the top-5 in the NFL in yards and points the last two seasons. They had the No. 1 ranked defense last season but were exposed in a 42-36 loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round.
Buffalo Bills 2022 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bills Over 11.5 Wins -140
Bills Under 11.5 Wins +120
Those who questioned the Bills for drafting Allen with the seventh overall pick in 2018 are awfully quiet now. It was a process, but the former Wyoming Cowboy has proven to be just the guy leading this offense. A little regression was expected after astonishing numbers helped the Bills reach the AFC Championship in 2020. And sure enough the numbers dipped slightly, and that was with opposing defenses keying on him. Buffalo didn’t sneak up on anyone winning 11 games as a favorite in most of them.
As long as Allen remains healthy there’s no reason the offense won’t roll again. And with the QBs reckless style health is a concern. Allen rushed the football 122 times last season topping triple digits in carries for a third straight season. While coaches preach running the football I’m sure Sean McDermott would like someone other than Allen to handle a bulk of the carries. The offense remains in good hands with Allen throwing to Stefon Diggs and the club made a few additions to make sure the group remains one of the best in the league.
It’s easy to look at the offense with the numbers Allen and Co. put up. They averaged 382 yards and 28.4 points to rank third and fifth respectively. But they also had the stingiest defense showing off one of the NFL’s most balanced rosters. However, they will be known for how the season ended in an epic battle with Kansas City in the playoffs. The group allowed more than 400 yards in a game only once until the Chiefs amassed 552 in the divisional round. Several needs were addressed during the offseason most notably the signing of Von Miller.
2022 Buffalo Bills Schedule
Week 1: at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday, September 8, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 2: vs. Tennessee Titans, Monday, September 19, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 3: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, October 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, October 9, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, October 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, October 30, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 9: at New York Jets, Sunday, November 6, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, November 20, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: at Detroit Lions, Thursday, November 24, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Week 13: at New England Patriots, Thursday, December 1, 8:15 p.m. ET (PRIME)
Week 14: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, December 11, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins, Saturday, December 17, (TBA)
Week 16: at Chicago Bears, Saturday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: at Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, January 2, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Week 18: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, January 8 (TBA)
I guess the biggest thing facing the Bills is how the offense works under new coordinator Ken Dorsey. There’s always a feeling out process, but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’s been with the team for a few years as QB coach. The Bills took advantage of a rebuilding division going 5-1 against AFC East foes a season ago. The other clubs should be better and there’s no guarantee that many wins are on the horizon. They also have four games against the tough AFC North along with a first place rotation on the schedule meaning tough matchups nearly every week.
Quick Pick
The Bills have established themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL over the past three seasons totaling 34 victories in that span. The Super Bowl window is still wide open and it’s more about postseason success at this point. Of course you have to reach the playoffs first and that shouldn’t be a problem with a balanced and deep roster. The Bills will win their share of games, however a difficult schedule caps the win total and I see 12 victories as the ceiling. Toss in one clunker along the way and the UNDER has plenty of value.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills UNDER 11.5 Wins
