It doesn’t happen often but the Alabama Crimson Tide are in a slump. The nation’s premiere program has dropped two of three games and the prospect of a college football playoff without them looms large. And getting back in the win column after a crushing defeat to LSU last week, which could eventually cost them the SEC West, is no easy task. Bama is vulnerable and the Mississippi Rebels find themselves in a good spot to end a six-game losing streak in the series. Despite their recent woes the Tide are an 11.5-point road favorite on the college football betting line.
The Week 11 college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ole Miss Rebels will take place at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 12, 2022 and will be televised on CBS.
Alabama vs Ole Miss Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5
Mississippi Rebels +11.5
Over/Under 64
Odds Analysis
The posted spread is the lowest in the series in six years. Alabama is facing some scrutiny after losing two of its past three games with the setbacks coming on the road by a total of four points. That’s not bad unless you consider they were favored by 9.5-points at Tennessee and 13.5 at LSU. Still, Bama opened at -11 and got some early action pushing the line to -11.5. Alabama covered the 15-point spread in last year’s 42-21 win and is 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. While the Rebels are winning games they haven’t been profitable. They pushed the 3-point line in last week’s 31-28 win over Texas AM and have just one payout in their last six games going 1-4-1 ATS. The Rebels are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS at home this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Even the Roman Empire crumbled so I guess we can’t be too surprised by what’s happening with the Tide. You could almost see the writing on the wall, though, after two close games earlier in the year. Not only is Bama losing, the games have gotten closer as well. They got by Texas 20-19 in Week 2 as a three-touchdown favorite and narrowly escaped what’s turned out to be a bad Texas AM squad, 24-20, at home laying 24 points. Bama was 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS before losing to Tennessee and LSU. They did squeak a 30-6 payout win over Mississippi State in between those games.
Bryce Young set the bar so high last year that some regression was expected. He threw for 328 yards with a touchdown against LSU but was also intercepted for only the fourth time. More staggering was that he completed less than 50 percent of his throws. He’s thrown for 2,234 yards and 19 TDs but we have seen a slight dip in scoring with an average of 41.8 points. The bigger issue in the two losses was defense. Bama allowed 567 yards to Tennessee and an average of 42 points in those games. And they’re facing another high-powered attack on Saturday.
Mississippi Rebels
Ole Miss needs some help if they want to win the SEC West. And they really need to help themselves by beating Alabama. The Rebels are tied with LSU in the loss column but the one defeat came against the Tigers in Week 8, 45-20, as a 1-point favorite. They need a LSU loss somewhere in the next few weeks but also can’t afford a misstep of their own making this contest more important. The Rebels bounced back from their worst offensive showing of the season to beat Texas AM, 31-28, in Week 9 entering the bye on a positive note.
Matching Bama’s offensive production is a must and the Rebels certainly have the weapons. In a little change of pace Ole Miss has one of the most potent run games in the country averaging over 267 yards on the ground. Quinshon Judkins had 205 yards in 34 carries against the Aggies and the Rebels amassed 390 yards on 63 carries. Jaxson Dart completed just 13 passes but three of them went for scores in an efficient performance. Ole Miss cashed the OVER in four straight.
Alabama vs Mississippi Prediction
Alabama has a knack for bouncing back after poor outings but this year feels a little different, and I’m sure the Rebels are well aware of that. We saw Tennessee end a lengthy losing streak to the Tide a few weeks ago and Bama has been average on the road going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Heck, they probably should’ve lost that Texas game. Fans in Oxford will be pumped giving the home team more of an edge and while they may not win expect the Rebels to stay within the spread.
Prediction: Mississippi Rebels +11.5 and OVER 64
