Saturday’s SEC West top-20 matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks should feature two undefeated teams, except that the Hogs failed to put away Texas AM last week committing too many mistakes along the way. Those issues will have a bigger impact against the No. 2 team in the country with Alabama outscoring its last two opponents 118-10 following a close call with Texas in Week 2.
And the Tide has owned the series winning the last 15 games while laying at least two touchdowns in the previous seven matchups. And Alabama opened as a 17-point road favorite on the college football betting line.
The Week 5 college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks will take place at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, AR at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 1, 2022 and will be televised on CBS.
Alabama vs Arkansas Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide -17
Arkansas Razorbacks +17
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
Playing against a double-digit spread is nothing new for Alabama and it certainly is nothing new in this series. According to oddsmakers, though, Arkansas has closed the gap. The Tide hit the board as a 17-point favorite, which would be the smallest line in the past six meetings and the first time under 20-points in that span. Arkansas is 3-2 ATS in the previous five matchups staying within the 20.5-point line last season in a 42-35 setback in Tuscaloosa. The total came in at 61, which is higher than only one of the previous 20 encounters.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s only road game this season was a nail-biter in Week 2 when Bryce Young led a game-winning field goal drive in the 20-19 win at Texas. Bama was a three-touchdown favorite in that matchup and it’s the only time they failed to cover in four games. Granted the Horns are better than three other clubs Bama wrecked, but it has to give Arkansas some sense of hope. There were some issues on the offensive line against Texas. The group failed to ignite the ground game and had a tough time protecting Young. The Tide was much better the last two weeks, though against much weaker competition.
Don’t expect the Tide to take the foot off the gas on Saturday. Following their near miss at Texas the offense has been a machine racking up over 1,100 total yards and 8.4 yards per play outscoring Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt 118-10. Young was the catalyst last week throwing for 385 yards and four TDs without an interception. He was picked off twice the previous week, though it didn’t matter in their 63-7 win. Laying at least 40 points to opponents outside the state of Texas, the Tide is 3-0 ATS.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The Hogs feel they have a good chance at breaking their long losing streak to Alabama despite their crushing setback last week to Texas AM. Good teams tend to learn from their mistakes and not repeat the same gaffes. We’ll see what happens. The Hogs appeared to be in control of last week’s game scoring the first 14 points, and they were poised to score another touchdown late in the first half before the Aggies returned a fumble 82 yards for a score. It was part of a 23-0 Texas AM run that swung the outcome. Still, with less than two minutes remaining the Hogs had a chance to reclaim the lead only to see a field goal attempt clank off the upright.
As bad as Arkansas feels about that game that can’t dwell on it, not with Bama heading to town. The Razorbacks will need to tighten up defensively to improve their chances. They give up a lot of yards through the air and over 400 yards per game on average. A lot of their deficiencies on that side of the ball are masked by an offense that averages 481 yards and scores 33.5 points. K.J. Jefferson has thrown for 941 yards and eight TDs with only one pick and has another 274 yards and four scores on the ground. He’s a dual-threat that can keep Bama’s defense on its toes.
Alabama vs Arkansas Prediction
Two highly-skilled offensive teams give a lot of value to the OVER, which seems a bit low for me. That makes the play more inviting. This is a tough matchup for Alabama on the road and we saw what happened in Austin, but the Tide learned from that game and they won’t overlook the Hogs like I think they’ve done in the past. Still, Arkansas’ defense has too many holes and the offense won’t be able to keep up.
Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -17 / OVER 61
