This week’s UFC on FOX 24 is arguably better than last week’s UFC 210 pay-per-view. Yeah, I said it. That’s because it’s so much deeper. Every main card scrap has title implications, and even both prelims fights are compelling within their respective divisions.
Plus, it’s free on FOX, a channel that you can get even if you’ve only got rabbit ear antennae on top of your TV. So take the money that you were going to spend on pay-per-view and turn it into some winnings, courtesy of the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu.
We’ve got a lot of ground to cover, from a flyweight title tilt through some contender matchups and more. Let’s get into the UFC events’ cherry picks (betting odds with good values and probabilities), and underdog specials (decent odds that pay out more than what you put in).
Cherry Picks Record: 28-16-1
Underdog Specials Record: 4-1
Demetrious Johnson (-739) vs Wilson Reis (+533)
Over/under 3.5 rounds:
- Over -165
- Under +145
Another Lopsided Money Line
No surprises here that Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is more than a 7-1 favorite. It’s not even close to his most expensive money line during his title reign: At one point he was -2000 against Chris Cariaso in UFC 178. He’s just that much better than the rest of the 125-pound class, which has been proven over and over again.
Obviously, the best route to go here is the over/under, which offers much more affordable options. Oddsmakers are throwing us a bone with a 3.5 round over/under, giving us a wider window to work with on both sides of the total. In this case, the over is a safe play, as Reis’ size, strength and skillset could prolong this fight, which is poised to be one of the best UFC fights of 2017.
Cherry Pick:
Over 3.5 rounds: -175
Rose Namajunas (-135) vs Michelle Waterson (+115)
Over/under 2.5 rounds:
- Over -175
- Under +145
An Even Steven Matchup
Physically, Namajunas has more tools to work with. She’s younger, taller, rangier, and a very good athlete. Waterson definitely has the edge in experience, though she’s fighting up from her natural weight class at atomweight. Still, she’s proven that she can hang at 115 and is a tough out for anyone.
The safest bet here is the over on 2.5 rounds. Three rounds is not a long time for either fighter: both possess the durability and cardio to go hard for 15 minutes. Considering that neither have knockout power nor a substantial grappling advantage, there’s a great chance this will go to the final bell.
If you want to take some risk, picking the underdog in this UFC female fight makes sense.
Cherry Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -175
Underdog Special: Waterson +115
Ronaldo Souza (-230) vs Robert Whittaker (+190)
Over/under 1.5 rounds
- Over -145
- Under +125
Bye Momentum, Nice Knowing Ya
Whittaker’s six-fight win streak is all shiny and chrome, but jumping from the Uriah Halls of the world to Ronaldo Souza is asking a lot of the 26 year old. Souza is basically an anaconda in human form, and Whittaker doesn’t exactly have the best grappling defense.
That’s not to say that Whittaker will get annihilated–he’s a talented guy who should put up a decent fight. But once Souza locks onto his opponents and drags them to the mat, the writing’s on the wall.
Cherry Pick: Over 1.5 rounds -145
Jeremy Stephens (-195) vs Renato Carneiro (+155)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
- Over -140
- Under +100
Oh, So You’re Undefeated?
Carneiro is 10-0 with two UFC wins. Apparently, gutting out a tough split decision win over Zubaira Tukhugov is enough to earn a spot opposite the No. 5-ranked Jeremy Stephens. Either Sean Selby thinks really highly of the Brazilian or he really wants Lil’ Heathen – mired in a 2-4 slide – back in the win column.
This isn’t exactly an easy bounceback fight for Stephens, but the advantage he has on his feet against “Moicano” gives him plenty of cushion for a win here. Let’s hope Carneiro isn’t too attached to his unblemished record.
Cherry Pick: Stephens to win at -195
Roy Nelson (+105) vs Alexander Volkov (-145)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
- Over -170
- Under +105
Big Country Lumbers On
How much more can 40-year-old Roy Nelson take? We all know that his right hand can still lay fools out, but it’s been tough watching him huff and puff his way through three-rounders. The UFC’s most famous ‘fat guy’ has obviously never been the best-conditioned fighter, but now he’s fighting age.
In his last outing against Timothy Johnson, Volkov showed us that you can’t bully him around with bulk. The Russian also displayed mobility and a solid stick-and-move game against the slower man. Now he’s facing the slowest guy in the division.
Cherry Pick: Volkov to win at -145
Tim Elliott (-300) vs Louis Smolka (+220)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
- Over -190
- Under +150
You Need More Than Grappling
Smolka is an awesome BJJ guy, but the Hawaiian looks lost on his feet. It’s a lot harder to get subs after your face gets turned to ground beef.
Elliott just gave Johnson one of his most challenging title defenses yet, using his size and strength to tag the champ and take him to the ground. While there’s always the chance that Smolka will nab a slick sub, it’s more likely that the UFC results will be that he’ll get knocked around and roughed up with GNP.
Cherry Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -190
Be sure to bookmark BigOnSports.com for the current UFC rankings and betting odds.
