The PGA Tour takes a break this week from its normal 72-hole stroke play format with the field of 64 players congregating in Texas for the World Golf Championships Dell Technologies Match Play starting Wednesday. The Tour’s marketing department took full advantage of March Madness creating a bracket style format to determine a winner. And of course you can fill out your bracket at various golf sites. The exclusive field that consists of eight of the top nine players in the world is divided into 16 groups of four going against each other over the first three days in a round-robin, match-play format. The winner from each group advances to the knockout stage over the weekend.
Seeing Scottie Scheffler positioned at the top of the odds board isn’t a surprise. He’s been hot since last season when he prevailed with a 4&3 win over Kevin Kisner and is back to defend another of his titles. Scheffler was successful doing so at the Phoenix Open. Though there is a different format this week, the top of the odds board looks similar to nearly every big event this season with Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy rounding out the top three favorites and the only players with 10/1 or shorter odds.
The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play runs from March 22-26, 2023 at Austin Country Club in Austin, TX. Television coverage is provided by Golf Channel and NBC.
WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Odds
Scottie Scheffler +725
Jon Rahm +950
Rory McIlroy +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +2000
Max Homa +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Jordan Spieth +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Viktor Hovland +2200
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jason Day +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Will Zalatoris +3000
Cameron Young +3000
Sam Burns +3500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3500
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Tom Kim +4500
Shane Lowry +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Rickie Fowler +5500
Tom Hoge +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
Keith Mitchell +6000
Sahith Theegala +6500
Odds Analysis
There isn’t a great divide between the No. 1 seed and the No. 64 seed making an upset more likely than what we saw in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and there were some doozies on the hardwood. Scheffler is obviously deserving of his seat as the batting favorite with his strong play and history at Austin. He won four times last season and already has a pair of victories this season. And to add to his legacy, Scheffler was second here in 2021 losing to Billy Horschel despite going 1-0-2 in the group stage.
Recent form always has to be considered when wagering on golf, but this format is unique making match play history a big element. Matt Kuchar has a serious history at Austin Country Club winning more than 60 percent of his matches while earning a third and runner-up in his last two starts. He also has a T9 on his resume making him a worthwhile investment at +8000. Also take into account that half of the previous six winners at Austin CC were priced at 50/1 or higher.
I’m surprised Rory McIlroy isn’t getting as much attention. Sure, he’s the third favorite, but Scheffler has hogged the headlines leaving Rory lurking in the shadows. McIlroy has a standout 34-18-4 career match play record and won this tournament at TPC Harding Park in 2015, the year before the move to Texas. It’s as if there are two tournaments in one with players needing to win the group stage in order to advance to the knockout round. Kisner, Corey Conners and Tyrrell Hatton are returning players that went 3-0 in round-robin play last year.
The Field
I typically don’t like to back the favorite simply because there is value in other places, but how can you ignore Scheffler and what he’s accomplished. The match play format is much different from stroke play but Scheffler has mastered them both. He has six overall titles in the past 13 months and is the defending champ taking out Kevin Kisner. He also finished as runner-up in 2021 in his first match play start.
The field is who’s who in golf with the best players in the world so finding big names in the second and third tier of the odds board isn’t unusual. Hatton is definitely worth a look considering his record at Austin and recent form. He’s advanced out of the group stage three times in five trips and was perfect last year. However, he’s been unable to move past the first knockout round. He enters off a runner-up at THE PLAYERS and T4 at the API.
WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Prediction
Scheffler is an obvious outright pick given he’s the best player on the planet right now. There are other players with impressive match play records like McIlroy, Kuchar and Kisner. One guy that stands out, though, at a decent price is Jason Day. He’s a two-time match play winner, including the inaugural event at Austin CC in 2016, and recent form is impressive with three top 10s among six straight top 20s.
WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Pick: Jason Day
