Super Wild Card Weekend gets the NFL playoffs started with Sunday being the busiest day. Three games dot the schedule with two of them a matchup between division foes and the other a rematch from the regular season. Injuries are always a concern once the playoffs start and both the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens are facing uncertainty at the quarterback spot. As a result both teams are a significant road underdog in their respective games.
Wild Card Sunday opens with an AFC East confrontation between the Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Just recently the Fins ruled Tua Tagovailoa out for Sunday’s game due to lingering concussion symptoms and Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. That puts rookie Skylar Thompson in line to make his third career start. The news also created havoc with the spread and total. The Bills jumped to a 13-point favorite when news of Tua surfaced. The total also plummeted. The teams split the season series with the games decided by a total of five points with Miami getting a pair of payouts. The game is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo and will be televised on CBS.
At 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX will air the NFC tilt between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings. Now is the time for Kirk Cousins and the Vikes to prove their doubters wrong. I can’t recall a 13-win team being as scrutinized as the Vikings have been. I guess that happens when all 11 of your one-score games end with a victory. At some point the luck will run out unless Minnesota can win by a couple of scores. One of those narrow victories occurred in Week 16 when Greg Joseph nailed a 61-yard field goal for a 27-24 win over the Giants, though they failed to cover the 4.5-point spread. We saw the line drop for the rematch with the Vikings a 3-point home favorite.
It’s hard to see the Ravens advancing with Lamar Jackson on the sideline. And a win isn’t even in the picture if backup Tyler Huntley isn’t ready to play. Jackson has yet to practice since injuring his knee in Week 14 and the offense stumbled in his absence. The AFC North rivals met just last week with Anthony Brown behind center for Baltimore tossing a pair of picks in the Bengals’ 27-16 win, their eighth straight. The teams pushed the 11-point line with the Bengals going 7-0-1 ATS during the streak. The primetime matchup airs on NBC at 8:15 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.
Miami Dolphins ( +13 ) at Buffalo Bills ( -13 ) O/U 43.5
We saw strange things happen this season so don’t count the Dolphins out just yet. The season matchups were tight with each club getting a narrow home win. The difference for Miami is that Tua started both those games and the team averages around 10 points more in games he starts. And it’s been confirmed that Tua isn’t playing on Sunday. That’s a break for the Bills but it won’t affect their preparation and mindset. After two tough postseason ousters to Kansas City, the Bills are focused on getting out of the AFC and into the Super Bowl. I don’t think they’ll have a problem with the Dolphins in their first hurdle to get there.
Our Prediction: Buffalo Bills -13 and OVER 43.5
New York Giants ( +3 ) at Minnesota Vikings ( -3 ) O/U 48
Daniel Jones and the Giants had one of their best offensive games of the year in the earlier loss to Minnesota. And it wasn’t a fluke since the Vikings aren’t very good at stopping teams. Jones threw for 334 yards and the Giants amassed 445 total yards in a game they easily could’ve won. Penalties, two turnovers and 3 of 11 on third down proved their downfall. Jones and Saquon Barkley need to be sharp for the Giants to control the football and keep the Cousins-Jefferson combo off the field. You don’t win 13 games by being lucky, though, and the Vikings have had their share.
Our Prediction: Minnesota Vikings -3 and OVER 48
Baltimore Ravens ( +9.5 ) at Cincinnati Bengals ( -9.5 ) O/U 40.5
They may not have scored a lot of points in the games Jackson missed, but the Ravens won half of them thanks to a lethal defense that helped the UNDER go 5-1 in the last six games. With Baltimore’s QB situation in flux bettors flocked to the red-hot Bengals forcing a spike in the spread to Baltimore +9.5. Though he hasn’t officially been ruled out I doubt Jackson plays after missing so much time. The hope is that Huntley is healthy enough to take snaps with a better grasp of the offense. With Joe Burrow looking like a MVP the Bengals take an eight-game winning streak into this contest and they’ve beaten the Ravens in three of four previous meetings while going 3-0-1 ATS. I see the Bengals winning, but the points are inviting considering how strong the Ravens are on defense.
Our Prediction: Baltimore Ravens +9.5 and UNDER 40.5
