The AFC North puts its fiercest rivalry on display in primetime when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 17 edition of Sunday Night Football. There’s usually something at stake when these clubs meet this late and that’s the case for the Steelers. Clinging to slim playoff hopes Pittsburgh has to win its remaining two games and get some help. They also need a pair of victories to continue Mike Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing season. Over the past 15 primetime meetings the Ravens hold a slim 8-7 lead and are positioned as a 3-point favorite to add another win to their resume.
The Week 17 Sunday Night Football contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will take place at MT Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD at 8:20 p.m. ET on January 1, 2023 and will be televised on NBC.
Steelers vs Raven Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 ( +135 )
Baltimore Ravens -3 ( -155 )
Over/Under 36
Odds Analysis
If this game is anything like the first meeting and a majority of games in the series we can expect a tight, low-scoring affair. Baltimore prevailed with a 16-14 road win in Week 14 snapping a four-game losing streak in the series and earning the first payout in three games. Those four losses were decided by a total of 13 points. Only once in the past four matchups did a team score as many as 20 points, which came in Pittsburgh’s 20-19 win last season. Given how close the series has been over the years it’s not surprising to see Baltimore as a 3-point favorite, though the Ravens are just 1-4 SU and ATS in the last five meetings in Baltimore. We’ve also seen some low totals over the years and if the number holds up it’ll be the lowest in the last six games. The teams have cashed the UNDER in four straight encounters.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett is still trying to figure things out and the Steelers have struggled offensively because of it. At least the defense has been top notch helping them make a late run for a playoff spot. The Steelers held each of their last five opponents to 17 points or less winning four of those games going 4-1 ATS. The only setback in that span came to the Ravens in Week 14 when Pickett exited early with an injury. It’s been an interesting season for the Steelers as they transitioned away from Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett was drafted in the first round as the heir apparent but opened the season backing up Mitchell Trubisky. Since taking over in Week 4, Pickett has completed 65.2 percent of his passes but has just five touchdowns and nine interceptions.
The Steelers average 17.6 points but they were able to get a win last time out when putting up only 13 points. The defense held Las Vegas to 201 total yards limiting NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs to 44 yards on 15 carries. Cameron Heyward had two of the team’s three sacks and the Steelers intercepted three Derek Carr passes. They did enough to beat the Ravens a few weeks ago but three Trubisky interceptions hurt them. Pickett is back after missing the first game looking to build off a solid performance against the Raiders when he was 26 of 39 for 244 yards tossing the game-winning TD pass with less than a minute to play.
Baltimore Ravens
There’s a reason why the total is so low. The offense revolves around Lamar Jackson and with him on the shelf the last three games the Ravens have scored a total of three touchdowns with Tyler Huntley behind center. Their point total in last week’s 17-9 win over Atlanta was their highest in the last four games, and the Ravens also succeeded winning three times in that span while going 2-2 ATS and cashing the UNDER in all four. Playing below the total in 11 of 15 games, the Ravens boast the best UNDER rate in the NFL at 73.3 percent with a number of those games when Jackson played.
Baltimore’s defense has been stingy as well and getting stronger as the season progressed. Through the first eight games they yielded at least 20 points in a game six times. They’ve done that once in the last seven outings while holding three opponents to less than 10 points. Over that stretch the Ravens are holding teams to an average of 12.7 points. Though the clinched a playoff spot last week the division title is still within reach, so there is something to play for. And it’s a huge division rival so expect an intense competition.
Steelers vs Ravens Prediction
We’ve witnessed a number of close games between these teams and both are playing well defensively giving value to the UNDER. Huntley hasn’t been able to stick the ball in the end zone consistently and that’s not going to change against Pittsburgh’s stifling group. I have to take the points in this matchup.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 and UNDER 36
