The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers is much more than a battle between the fifth and sixth overall picks in the 2020 NFL draft. That is a huge storyline and will get plenty of traction this week, but the Bolts are searching for wins and a playoff berth after last season’s disappointment while the Fins look to bounce back following a frustrating loss to San Francisco. Many expected LA’s Justin Herbert to be in the MVP conversation this season but instead it’s Tua Tagovailoa getting the accolades finally living up to his draft status. Tua was taken one spot ahead of Herbert in the draft as the second and third QBs selected.
The Week 14 Sunday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers will take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA at 8:20 p.m. ET on December 11, 2022 and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Week 14 – Dolphins vs Chargers Odds
Miami Dolphins -3.5 ( -181 )
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 ( +156 )
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
The Dolphins had their five-game winning streak stopped by the Niners, 33-17, last week. The run coincided with the return of Tagovailoa after missing some time with a concussion. The Fins were rolling scoring at least 30 points in the last four games of that streak going 3-1 ATS. Oddsmakers viewed last week’s setback as a minor bump in the road setting them as a 3-point road favorite. The spread has been wagered up a half-point to -3.5. Though they are 8-4 overall, the Fins are just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. Just last month the Bolts were in a good spot for the playoffs at 5-3. But losing three of their last four games while failing to cover the previous two have them outside the playoff picture.
Miami Dolphins
The Fins may have gotten a false sense of security during their recent winning streak. It’s hard to win games in the NFL, but it becomes easier when the opposition isn’t as tough. The five wins came against teams currently at least two-games below .500 with Chicago and Houston the first clubs to reach double-digit setbacks. The offense looked a lot like the Greatest Show on Turf with Tua leading the way. Following a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh in Week 7, Miami scored at least 30 points in each of the next four with the OVER going 3-1.
Tua returned from injury better than before completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception during the winning streak. And things looked promising in Santa Clara last week when Tua hooked up with Trent Sherfield for a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s first offensive snap. But the Dolphins have had difficulty against stronger teams. Tagovailoa finished 18 of 33 for 295 yards and two scores, but he was turned over twice on interceptions and was strip-sacked leading to another Niners score. The four teams to beat Miami this season enter Week 14 with a combined record of 33-15.
Los Angeles Chargers
A lot of the so-called experts had the Chargers as a playoff team before the season started. They can still make the postseason but the task got more difficult with a loss to the Raiders last week, the Bolts third in four games. And if you wanted to point out a flaw in the club you don’t have to look beyond the defense. Injuries have played a role with Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson among others still out. And opponents have taken advantage. Josh Jacobs rushed for 144 of Vegas’ 154 yards last week, the sixth straight game opponents topped the 150-yard mark.
On offense the Chargers don’t have the same playmakers. Top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have played fewer than 50 snaps together all season. Allen returned with a TD catch last week with Williams still on the shelf. To make matters worse Herbert will be operating behind a patchwork line with three starters possibly missing the contest. It’s crunch time for the Bolts with a date against another AFC heavyweight Tennessee next week. “We need to win the rest of these games. For us the playoffs really started last week,” Josh Palmer said.
Dolphins vs Chargers Prediction
Despite the injuries the Chargers are still in position to help themselves with a playoff push. Like Palmer said they can’t afford more losses. Herbert and the offense haven’t been bad and the Bolts catch a break facing a team that doesn’t run the football. LA is last in run defense. Now they just have to stop Tua or have Herbert outduel him in a shootout. Playing with a sense of urgency will help get the home upset.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 and UNDER 52
