Every team in the NFC South has a losing record and only one win separates the four clubs in the standings. That makes divisional matchups kind of a big deal and we have a huge one in Week 13 Monday Night Football with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs lead the pack with a record of 5-6 dropping below .500 with a 23-17 overtime loss to Cleveland last week as a 3-point road favorite. At least Tampa scored which is more than can be said about the Saints, who were shutout for the first time in two decades, 13-0, by San Francisco.
The Week 13 Monday Night Football contest between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL at 8:15 p.m. ET on December 5, 2022 and will be televised on ESPN.
Saints vs Buccaneers Odds (Week 13)
New Orleans Saints +4 ( +166 )
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 ( -195 )
Over/Under 40.5
Odds Analysis
What stood out most to me was the total. Hell, it wasn’t that long ago when these clubs were playing with an over/under regularly in the low to mid-50s. The betting public isn’t showing much confidence in the ability of the teams to score with the total wagered down two points to 40.5 since hitting the board. If the number holds or drops it’ll be the lowest total in a matchup in at least the last 30 meetings. The teams, especially the Saints, just aren’t as explosive as they once were. The spread also tumbled in favor of New Orleans. Tampa opened at -6 but has since been wagered down to -4. The Bucs are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
New Orleans Saints
I guess it can’t get much worse for the Saints, who came off a big win against the Rams in Week 11 only to piss down their leg in a shutout loss to the Niners last week. It’s not like they didn’t have chances either, which in a way makes the defeat even more frustrating. The offense never clicked with Andy Dalton throwing for 204 yards. And when the veteran is your leading rusher things are bad. Dalton ran for 21 yards with the rest of the team amassing a grand total of 42 yards and 2.3 yards per carry. Despite that the Saints were right there thanks to a stingy defensive effort.
Two Alvin Kamara fumbles, including one at the SF goal line thwarted drives and the Saints failed to punch it in on four tries from the Niners 4-yard line. Oh, and Will Lutz also missed a 48-yard field goal in the third quarter that would’ve at least made things interesting. A good game by the defense went to waste costing the Saints in the standings. It was their third loss in four games where they went 1-3 ATS. The group has played much better since shutting out Las Vegas in Week 8. Over their last five games the Saints have allowed an average of 16 points with the UNDER 4-1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady got his first regular season win over the Saints as a member of the Bucs in Week 2. It wasn’t his finest game from a statistical standpoint, but the result is what counts Brady threw for 190 yards and a TD in the 20-10 win covering the 2.5-point closing line. I guess that game was a sign of things to come for Brady and the Bucs. The offense produced just 13 points in that game with Mike Edwards taking one of three interceptions back for a score. You might recall the last time these teams met in Tampa New Orleans stunned everyone with a 9-0 win as an 11-point underdog. The Bucs ended a seven-game regular season losing streak to New Orleans with their Week 2 victory, but it was far from decisive.
Brady hasn’t put up the numbers were accustomed to seeing from him, but he’s having a sneaky good season for an offense that ranks 27th in scoring. He’s thrown for 3,051 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 470 attempts. The Bucs in general and the offense in particular have been a disappointment. They scored more than 21 points just twice losing both times while cashing the OVER. In the other nine games the Bucs played below the closing total putting the UNDER at 9-2. The teams played below the total in each of the last two meetings and in four of the previous five matchups.
Saints vs Buccaneers Prediction
We saw a close game turn on the Saints last week with a couple of costly turnovers. And that’s been a theme for them. They lead the NFL with 21 giveaways and their minus-14 turnover differential is the worst. The Bucs forced five turnovers in the first meeting and have valued the football all season with a league-low nine giveaways. With struggling offenses the team that takes advantage of mistakes is more likely to win and the numbers say it’s Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 and UNDER 40.5
