The Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to make up for their stunning defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV when the clubs meet for the first time since then in the Week 4 edition of Sunday Night Football. While the Bucs are the home team for this contest the location of the game remains up in the air with the threat of Hurricane Ian bearing down on Tampa.
Regardless of where the game is played the NFL said it will take place on Sunday night. Both clubs are coming off their first loss of the season where the offenses failed. The Chiefs are a slight 1-point road favorite, though that number could change if the game is relocated.
The Week 4 Sunday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa at 8:20 p.m. ET on October 2, 2022 and will be televised on NBC.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
I suspect there will be a holding pattern on this game while we wait and see what Ian does over the next few days. At least there is a contingency plan and the game will be played on Sunday, though it would be a logistical nightmare for all involved. The Chiefs were installed as a slight 1-point favorite which if it stands would make the Bucs a home dog for just the fourth time in the Tom Brady era. The Chiefs were the opponent in two of the previous three games as home dogs, including the Super Bowl matchup. The Bucs split those games and are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when catching points at home. Action on the UNDER lowered the total from its opening of 48.
Kansas City Chiefs
Screw ups on special teams and untimely penalties can thwart any team. The Chiefs were far from their best last week against Indianapolis and still held the lead with under a minute to play. I guess that tells us something about them. But leaving points on the table with a missed PAT and field goal by replacement kicker Matt Ammendola, and turning the ball over on downs with a failed fake field try doomed the Chiefs to their first setback. Not all the blame lies with special teams, though. There was a crack in the armor when Patrick Mahomes and Eric Bieniemy exchanged words at the end of the first half.
It’s not time to overreact to the Chiefs. Though Mahomes looked mortal the last two games the offense is still in good shape as Mahomes works with new pass catchers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Chiefs are top-5 in scoring averaging nearly 30 points while producing 374 yards of offense. Their point total in the 20-17 setback to the Colts was the lowest in the last 14 games as they cashed the UNDER for a second straight contest. We can’t blame the defense for the loss, though the group couldn’t stop Matt Ryan from orchestrating a game-winning touchdown drive with the help of an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a head coaching change we expected a few different wrinkles in the Bucs’ outlook. Bruce Arians was known for his prowess on offense and the team built an identity around his style. Now the Bucs are doing the same under former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bucs aren’t scoring as many points, but they are playing a mean defense. Injuries and suspensions hurt the offense with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Mike Evans all missing last week’s contest. Evans will return after serving his one-game suspension and it looks like Jones is ready to play. That should help the 22nd ranked passing game.
Tampa’s defense has been stellar giving up a league-low average of 9.0 points while holding opponents to fewer than 290 total yards per game. That’s allowed the Bucs to cash the UNDER in all three games. They held a decent Green Bay ground game to 67 yards and 2.7 yards per carry last week with an effort that deserved a better outcome. Having Evans back gives Brady the security blanket he needs to have success through the air and any kind of run game will help. I’m not really sure if the Bucs can or want to have a high scoring offense with Bowles at the helm.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Predictions
Even if the game is played in Tampa there’s so much uncertainty right now that routines are getting all messed up. The Bucs moved practices out of town and the Chiefs are in limbo about where to travel. All that takes a toll and leads me to think the offenses will be most affected, which is why I’m leaning toward the UNDER. And I do believe Brady has more in him than what he’s shown so far and it’s been a mistake to go against him, so take the GOAT and the points.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 / UNDER 45
